Zachary Arnold is the Analytic Lead for CSET’s Emerging Technology Observatory, responsible for product strategy, research, analytic writing, and user outreach and engagement. He previously served as a CSET research fellow, publishing widely cited analyses on AI safety, cross-border investment, research and development, and immigration, and as a fellow with the United States Senate Committee on Foreign Relations. His writing on technology and policy issues has appeared in The Wall Street Journal, Foreign Affairs, Nature, MIT Technology Review, Lawfare, and other leading outlets. He received a J.D. from Yale Law School, where he was an editor of the Yale Law Journal, and an A.B. (summa cum laude) in Social Studies from Harvard University.
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This paper presents two new methods for identifying research relevant to emerging technology. The authors developed and deployed technology topic classification and targeted research field scoring over a corpus of scientific literature to identify research… Read More
As critical infrastructure operators and providers seek to harness the benefits of new artificial intelligence capabilities, they must also manage associated risks from both AI-enabled cyber threats and potential vulnerabilities in deployed AI systems. In… Read More
In their Lawfare op-ed, Helen Toner and Zachary Arnold discuss the growing concerns and divisions within the AI community regarding the risks posed by artificial intelligence. Read More
Ngor Luong and Zachary Arnold provided their expert insights in an article published by Nature that discusses new data from PARAT, the Private-sector AI-Related Activity Tracker. Read More
China has become a scientific superpower
June 2024In an article published by The Economist that discusses the rapid growth and achievements of Chinese scientific research, CSET ETO Analytic Lead, Zachary Arnold, provided his expert insights. Read More
In a commentary published by Nature, Josh A. Goldstein and Zachary Arnold, along with co-authors, explore how artificial intelligence, including large language models like ChatGPT, can enhance science advice for policymaking. Read More
The Next Frontier in AI Regulation is Procedure
August 2023In a thought-provoking op-ed featured in Lawfare, CSET's Zachary Arnold and Micah Musser delve into the dynamic discourse surrounding the regulation of artificial intelligence (AI). Read More
ETO’s Open-source software Research and Community Activity (ORCA) tool compiles data on open-source software (OSS) used in science and technology research. Read More
ETO’s Research Almanac provides high-level data on key trends in emerging technology research, including overall research output, growth, and trends among countries, research institutions, and companies active in R&D. This initial version of the Almanac… Read More
As technology competition intensifies between the United States and China, governments and policy researchers are looking for metrics to assess each country’s relative strengths and weaknesses. One measure of technology innovation increasingly used by the… Read More
ETO's Supply Chain Explorer is designed to quickly orient non-experts to the essential inputs, players, and relationships involved in producing advanced computer chips. Use the Explorer to learn how these chips are made, who makes… Read More
CSET’s CAT presents data related to countries' artificial intelligence ecosystems to give an overview of domestic capabilities, as well as insights on competitiveness and collaboration globally. It presents metrics on AI research, patents, and investment-related… Read More
The Emerging Technology Observatory’s Map of Science collects and organizes the world’s research literature, revealing key trends, hotspots, and concepts in global science and technology. Read More
As modern machine learning systems become more widely used, the potential costs of malfunctions grow. This policy brief describes how trends we already see today—both in newly deployed artificial intelligence systems and in older technologies—show… Read More
CSET’s Private-sector AI-Related Activity Tracker (PARAT) collects data related to companies’ AI research and development to inform analysis of the global AI sector. The global AI market is already expanding rapidly and is likely to… Read More
As part of its strategy to achieve global leadership in AI, the Chinese government brings together local governments, academic institutions, and companies to establish collaboration platforms. This data brief examines the role of China’s Artificial… Read More
Chinese Students Are Not a Fifth Column
April 2021CSET Research Fellows Remco Zwetsloot and Zachary Arnold argue against the banning of Chinese STEM students from the United States and outline how rejecting foreign talent hampers U.S. innovation. Read More
Testimony
Zachary Arnold’s Testimony Before the U.S. China Economic and Security Review Commission
March 2021CSET Research Fellow Zachary Arnold testified before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission hearing on "U.S. Investment in China's Capital Markets and Military-Industrial Complex." Arnold discussed discuss China’s use of financial capital flows and… Read More
The Chinese government is pouring money into public-private investment funds, known as guidance funds, to advance China’s strategic and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence. These funds are mobilizing massive amounts of capital from public and… Read More
China’s government is using public-private investment funds, known as guidance funds, to deploy massive amounts of capital in support of strategic and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence. Drawing exclusively on Chinese-language sources, this report explores… Read More
In this proof-of-concept project, CSET and Amplyfi Ltd. used machine learning models and Chinese-language web data to identify Chinese companies active in artificial intelligence. Most of these companies were not labeled or described as AI-related… Read More
Data Brief
From China to San Francisco: The Location of Investors in Top U.S. AI Startups
February 2021Foreign investors comprise a significant portion of investors in top U.S. AI startups, with China as the leading location. The authors analyze investment data in the U.S. AI startup ecosystem both domestically and abroad, outlining… Read More
Corporate investors are a significant player in the U.S. AI startup ecosystem, funding 71 percent of top U.S. AI startups. The authors analyze the trends in top corporate funders and the startups receiving corporate money. Read More
U.S. research security requires trust and collaboration between those conducting R&D and the federal government. Most R&D takes place in the private sector, outside of government authority and control, and researchers are wary of federal… Read More
Half of Silicon Valley’s startups have at least one foreign-born founder, and immigrants are twice as likely as native-born Americans to start new businesses. To understand how immigration shapes AI entrepreneurship in particular in the… Read More
CSET submitted the following comment to the Department of Homeland Security regarding a fixed time period of admission for nonimmigrant students, exchange visitors and representatives of foreign information media. Read More
The global AI industry is booming, with privately held firms pulling in nearly $40 billion in disclosed investment in 2019 alone. U.S. companies continue to attract the majority of that funding—64 percent of it in… Read More
Establishing a new public-private institution to improve American research security… Read More
Preserving pathways for high-skilled foreign talent critical to U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence. Read More
Artificial intelligence is of increasing interest to the private sector, but what exactly constitutes an “AI company?” This data brief offers a flexible, data-driven framework for identifying the companies most relevant in this field at… Read More
New ICE restrictions on foreign students speed up a trend that make it slower and costlier for immigrants to come to the United States, write Zachary Arnold and Tina Huang. America’s historic near-monopoly on the… Read More
Official data shows a 75 percent increase in the number of U.S. residents advancing through Express Entry, Canada's flagship skilled immigration program. These findings call for immigration reforms and greater investment in STEM research and… Read More
Current immigration policies may undermine the historic strength of the United States in attracting and retaining international AI talent. This report examines the immigration policies of four U.S. economic competitor nations—the United Kingdom, Canada, France,… Read More
"AI is very different from other security-relevant technologies, in that the private sector is in the driver's seat." Zach Arnold and Ashwin Acharya joined the ChinaTalk podcast to discuss their work at CSET on AI… Read More
Analysis
Antitrust and Artificial Intelligence: How Breaking Up Big Tech Could Affect the Pentagon’s Access to AI
May 2020While AI innovation would presumably continue in some form without Big Tech, the authors find that breaking up the largest technology companies could fundamentally change the broader AI innovation ecosystem, likely affecting the development of… Read More
Foreign Brains Help America Compete
January 2020CSET research shows more than 80 percent of international students receiving Ph.D.s in artificial intelligence remain in the U.S. for at least five years. That’s good, write Remco Zwetsloot and Zach Arnold, because America’s tech… Read More
Talent is core to U.S. competitiveness in artificial intelligence, and international graduate students are a large source of AI talent for the United States. Retaining them in this country as they transition into the workforce… Read More
This product is a Chinese translation of the CSET issue brief, "Chinese Public AI R&D Spending: Provisional Findings" by Ashwin Acharya and Zachary Arnold. Read More
China aims to become “the world’s primary AI innovation center” by 2030. Toward that end, the Chinese government is spending heavily on AI research and development (R&D)—but perhaps not as heavily as some have thought. Read More
Immigration and the Future of U.S. AI
November 2019The Forbes AI 50 list “shows that foreign talent is critical to AI innovation—and that for now, the United States can still attract talent from around the world,” write CSET’s Remco Zwetsloot, Tina Huang and… Read More
Green card limits haven’t budged in decades, while new policies make it harder, costlier, and more uncertain for the world’s talent to come to the United States. Read More
A sustained talent shortage could undermine U.S. strength in artificial intelligence; current immigration policies would make it worse. Read our recommendations for bolstering U.S. leadership in AI research and practice. Read More
As the artificial intelligence field becomes more developed globally, the United States will continue to rely on foreign AI talent to stay ahead of the curve. Here are our preliminary recommendations to maintain current U.S. Read More