How can the U.S. government and its allies make effective use of artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) and other emerging technologies? Our research in this area examines AI-enabled emerging technologies relevant to national security, opportunities and challenges for adoption and application, and opportunities for alliances in the development and deployment of AI-enabled systems.

Analysis

Shaping the U.S. Space Launch Market

Michael O’Connor and Kathleen Curlee

| February 2025

The United States leads the world in space launch by nearly every measure: number of launches, total mass to orbit, satellite count, and more. SpaceX’s emergence has provided regular, reliable, and relatively affordable launches to commercial and national security customers. However, today’s market consolidation coupled with the capital requirements necessary...

Analysis

Staying Current with Emerging Technology Trends: Using Big Data to Inform Planning

Emelia Probasco and Christian Schoeberl

| December 2024

This report proposes an approach to systematically identify promising research using big data and analyze that research’s potential impact through structured engagements with subject-matter experts. The methodology offers a structured way to proactively monitor the research landscape and inform strategic R&D priorities.

Analysis

AI Safety and Automation Bias

Lauren Kahn, Emelia Probasco, and Ronnie Kinoshita

| November 2024

Automation bias is a critical issue for artificial intelligence deployment. It can cause otherwise knowledgeable users to make crucial and even obvious errors. Organizational, technical, and educational leaders can mitigate these biases through training, design, and processes. This paper explores automation bias and ways to mitigate it through three case...

The Future of Drones in Ukraine II: A Report from the NATO-Ukraine Defense Innovators Forum

Kyle Miller

| October 16, 2024

This blog describes key takeaways from the NATO-Ukraine Defense Innovators Forum, held in Krakow, Poland in June 2024. It overviews changing concepts of operation, battlefield realities, and technological aspirations and innovations in Ukraine, with a focus on uncrewed aerial vehicles (UAVs) and counter-UAV systems. It builds upon CSET’s previous blog...

Building a Data Collection Pipeline: Insights from a CSET Internship

Jordan Monts

| September 12, 2024

This blog post recounts the development of a Python-based data collection pipeline project completed in the summer of 2024 by CSET inaugural intern Jordan Monts. During his project research and work, he used the Requests and BeautifulSoup libraries to create a two-part system to gather and process web data, support...

An Analysis of China’s AI Governance Proposals

Hipolito Calero

| September 12, 2024

This blog post analyzes five major Chinese AI governance proposals, focusing on the key actors specified in each proposal. We find that older proposals lack specificity when identifying AI governance actors. Recent proposals, on the other hand, assign roles and responsibilities to a defined set of actors. The findings from...

Emelia Probasco

Senior Fellow

Kathleen Curlee

Research Analyst

Owen Daniels

Associate Director of Analysis and Andrew W. Marshall Fellow

Sam Bresnick

Research Fellow

In their op-ed in Newsweek, Jack Corrigan and Sam Bresnick discuss the recent release of DeepSeek's AI model, R1, which has surprised the global tech industry by matching the performance of leading U.S. models at a lower cost. This development challenges the assumption that restricting China's access to advanced chips would significantly hinder its AI progress.

In her Washington Post op-ed, Emelia Probasco shared her expert insights in an op-ed published by The Washington Post. In her piece, she discusses the strategic partnership between defense company Anduril and OpenAI to develop anti-drone technology for the U.S. military.

In a KCBS Radio segment that explores the rapid rise of AI in the defense industry, Emelia Probasco provides her expert insight.

In their op-ed featured in Breaking Defense, CSET's Sam Bresnick and Emelia Probasco provide their expert analysis on the involvement of US tech giants in conflicts, such as the Ukraine war, and raise important questions about their role and potential entanglements in future conflicts, particularly those involving Taiwan.

In an article published by the Associated Press exploring the rivalry between the U.S. and China in military planning, particularly focusing on a new form of warfare utilizing swarms of air and sea drones equipped with artificial intelligence (AI), CSET's Margarita Konaev offers her expert insight.

CSET's Sam Bresnick discussed Chinese military capabilities with the South China Morning Post.