Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

U.S. Outbound Investment into Chinese AI Companies

Emily S. Weinstein Ngor Luong
| February 2023

U.S. policymakers are increasingly concerned about the national security implications of U.S. investments in China, and some are considering a new regime for reviewing outbound investment security. The authors identify the main U.S. investors active in the Chinese artificial intelligence market and the set of AI companies in China that have benefitted from U.S. capital. They also recommend next steps for U.S. policymakers to better address the concerns over capital flowing into the Chinese AI ecosystem.

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Analysis

Reducing the Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Military Decision Advantage

Wyatt Hoffman Heeu Millie Kim
| March 2023

Militaries seek to harness artificial intelligence for decision advantage. Yet AI systems introduce a new source of uncertainty in the likelihood of technical failures. Such failures could interact with strategic and human factors in ways that lead to miscalculation and escalation in a crisis or conflict. Harnessing AI effectively requires managing these risk trade-offs by reducing the likelihood, and containing the consequences of, AI failures.

Analysis

Examining Singapore’s AI Progress

Kayla Goode Heeu Millie Kim Melissa Deng
| March 2023

Despite being a small city-state, Singapore’s star continues to rise as an artificial intelligence hub presenting significant opportunities for international collaboration. Initiatives such as fast-tracking patent approval, incentivizing private investment, and addressing talent shortfalls are making the country a rapidly growing global AI hub. Such initiatives offer potential models for those seeking to leverage the technology and opportunities for collaboration in AI education and talent exchanges, research and development, and governance. The United States and Singapore share similar goals regarding the development and use of trusted and responsible AI and should continue to foster greater collaboration among public and private sector entities.

Analysis

One Size Does Not Fit All

Heather Frase
| February 2023

Artificial intelligence is so diverse in its range that no simple one-size-fits-all assessment approach can be adequately applied to it. AI systems have a wide variety of functionality, capabilities, and outputs. They are also created using different tools, data modalities, and resources, which adds to the diversity of their assessment. Thus, a collection of approaches and processes is needed to cover a wide range of AI products, tools, services, and resources.

Analysis

Chinese AI Investment and Commercial Activity in Southeast Asia

Ngor Luong Channing Lee Margarita Konaev
| February 2023

China’s government has pushed the country’s technology and financial firms to expand abroad, and Southeast Asia’s growing economies — and AI companies — offer promising opportunities. This report examines the scope and nature of Chinese investment in the region. It finds that China currently plays a limited role in Southeast Asia’s emerging AI markets outside of Singapore and that Chinese investment activity still trails behind that of the United States. Nevertheless, Chinese tech companies, with support from the Chinese government, have established a broad range of other AI-related linkages with public and commercial actors across Southeast Asia.

Analysis

U.S. Outbound Investment into Chinese AI Companies

Emily S. Weinstein Ngor Luong
| February 2023

U.S. policymakers are increasingly concerned about the national security implications of U.S. investments in China, and some are considering a new regime for reviewing outbound investment security. The authors identify the main U.S. investors active in the Chinese artificial intelligence market and the set of AI companies in China that have benefitted from U.S. capital. They also recommend next steps for U.S. policymakers to better address the concerns over capital flowing into the Chinese AI ecosystem.

Formal Response

Comment to the National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative

Caroline Schuerger Steph Batalis Vikram Venkatram
| January 20, 2023

CSET's Dr. Caroline Schuerger, Dr. Steph Batalis, and Vikram Venkatram submitted this comment with recommendations for the National Biotechnology and Biomanufacturing Initiative.

The U.S. semiconductor supply chain’s resilience will meaningfully increase only if current efforts to re-shore fabrication (that is, to situate more facilities that make its key parts in the United States) are met with commensurate efforts to re-shore upstream material production along with downstream assembly, test, and packaging (ATP) of finished microelectronics.

Analysis

Forecasting Potential Misuses of Language Models for Disinformation Campaigns—and How to Reduce Risk

Josh A. Goldstein Girish Sastry Micah Musser Renée DiResta Matthew Gentzel Katerina Sedova
| January 2023

Machine learning advances have powered the development of new and more powerful generative language models. These systems are increasingly able to write text at near human levels. In a new report, authors at CSET, OpenAI, and the Stanford Internet Observatory explore how language models could be misused for influence operations in the future, and provide a framework for assessing potential mitigation strategies.

Analysis

China’s AI Workforce

Diana Gehlhaus Joanne Boisson Sara Abdulla Jacob Feldgoise Luke Koslosky Dahlia Peterson
| November 2022

U.S. policies on artificial intelligence education and the AI workforce must grow, cultivate, attract, and retain the world’s best and brightest. Given China’s role as a producer of AI talent, understanding its AI workforce could provide important insight. This report provides an analysis of the AI workforce demand in China using a novel dataset of 6.8 million job postings. It then outlines potential implications along with future reports in this series.

CSET's Ali Crawford and Jessica Ji submitted this comment to the Office of the National Cyber Director in response to a request for information on a national strategy for a cyber workforce, training, and education.