Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

National Power After AI

Matthew Daniels Ben Chang
| July 2021

AI technologies will likely alter great power competitions in foundational ways, changing both how nations create power and their motives for wielding it against one another. This paper is a first step toward thinking more expansively about AI & national power and seeking pragmatic insights for long-term U.S. competition with authoritarian governments.

Applications and implications


China


Hardware and compute


International standing


Talent


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Data Brief

From Cold War Sanctions to Weaponized Interdependence

Adam Kline Tim Hwang
| September 2021

As U.S. policymakers grapple with the need to control international technology flows, this annotated bibliography distills key lessons and surveys 50 years of scholarship, government documents, and commentary. The resources it presents are at the intersection of international economics and technology and span from the Cold War to the current challenges surrounding U.S.-China relations.

Analysis

AI Education in China and the United States

Dahlia Peterson Kayla Goode Diana Gehlhaus
| September 2021

A globally competitive AI workforce hinges on the education, development, and sustainment of the best and brightest AI talent. This issue brief compares efforts to integrate AI education in China and the United States, and what advantages and disadvantages this entails. The authors consider key differences in system design and oversight, as well as strategic planning. They then explore implications for the U.S. national security community.

Analysis

Education in China and the United States

Dahlia Peterson Kayla Goode Diana Gehlhaus
| September 2021

A globally competitive AI workforce hinges on the education, development, and sustainment of the best and brightest AI talent. This issue brief provides an overview of the education systems in China and the United States, lending context to better understand the accompanying main report, “AI Education in China and the United States: A Comparative Assessment.”

Analysis

Small Data’s Big AI Potential

Husanjot Chahal Helen Toner Ilya Rahkovsky
| September 2021

Conventional wisdom suggests that cutting-edge artificial intelligence is dependent on large volumes of data. An overemphasis on “big data” ignores the existence—and underestimates the potential—of several AI approaches that do not require massive labeled datasets. This issue brief is a primer on “small data” approaches to AI. It presents exploratory findings on the current and projected progress in scientific research across these approaches, which country leads, and the major sources of funding for this research.

Analysis

Headline or Trend Line?

Margarita Konaev Andrew Imbrie Ryan Fedasiuk Emily Weinstein Katerina Sedova James Dunham
| August 2021

Chinese and Russian government officials are keen to publicize their countries’ strategic partnership in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence. This report evaluates the scope of cooperation between China and Russia as well as relative trends over time in two key metrics of AI development: research publications and investment. The findings expose gaps between aspirations and reality, bringing greater accuracy and nuance to current assessments of Sino-Russian tech cooperation.

Analysis

Responsible and Ethical Military AI

Zoe Stanley-Lockman
| August 2021

Allies of the United States have begun to develop their own policy approaches to responsible military use of artificial intelligence. This issue brief looks at key allies with articulated, emerging, and nascent views on how to manage ethical risk in adopting military AI. The report compares their convergences and divergences, offering pathways for the United States, its allies, and multilateral institutions to develop common approaches to responsible AI implementation.

Analysis

Indonesia’s AI Promise in Perspective

Kayla Goode Heeu Millie Kim
| August 2021

The United States and China are keeping an eye on Indonesia’s artificial intelligence potential given the country’s innovation-driven national strategy and flourishing AI industry. China views Indonesia as an anchor for its economic, digital, and political inroads in Southeast Asia and has invested aggressively in new partnerships. The United States, with robust political and economic relations rooted in shared democratic ideals, has an opportunity to leverage its comparative advantages and tap into Indonesia’s AI potential through high-level agreements.

Analysis

Military AI Cooperation Toolbox

Zoe Stanley-Lockman
| August 2021

The Department of Defense can already begin applying its existing international science and technology agreements, global scientific networks, and role in multilateral institutions to stimulate digital defense cooperation. This issue brief frames this collection of options as a military AI cooperation toolbox, finding that the available tools offer valuable pathways to align policies, advance research, development, and testing, and to connect personnel–albeit in more structured ways in the Euro-Atlantic than in the Indo-Pacific.

Data Brief

China is Fast Outpacing U.S. STEM PhD Growth

Remco Zwetsloot Jack Corrigan Emily Weinstein Dahlia Peterson Diana Gehlhaus Ryan Fedasiuk
| August 2021

Since the mid-2000s, China has consistently graduated more STEM PhDs than the United States, a key indicator of a country’s future competitiveness in STEM fields. This paper explores the data on STEM PhD graduation rates and projects their growth over the next five years, during which the gap between China and the United States is expected to increase significantly.

Data Brief

U.S. AI Summer Camps

Claire Perkins Kayla Goode
| August 2021

Summer camps are an integral part of many U.S. students’ education, but little is known about camps that focus on artificial intelligence education. This data brief maps out the AI summer camp landscape in the United States and explores the camps’ locations, target age ranges, price, and hosting organization type.