Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

National Power After AI

Matthew Daniels Ben Chang
| July 2021

AI technologies will likely alter great power competitions in foundational ways, changing both how nations create power and their motives for wielding it against one another. This paper is a first step toward thinking more expansively about AI & national power and seeking pragmatic insights for long-term U.S. competition with authoritarian governments.

Applications and implications


China


Hardware and compute


International standing


Talent


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Analysis

The Huawei Moment

Alex Rubin Alan Omar Loera Martinez Jake Dow Anna Puglisi
| July 2021

For the first time, a Chinese company—Huawei—is set to lead the global transition from one key national security infrastructure technology to the next. How did Washington, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, fail to protect U.S. firms in this strategic technology and allow a geopolitical competitor to take a leadership position in a national security relevant critical infrastructure such as telecommunications? This policy brief highlights the characteristics of 5G development that China leveraged, exploited, and supported to take the lead in this key technology. The Huawei case study is in some ways the canary in the coal mine for emerging technologies and an illustration of what can happen to U.S. competitiveness when China’s companies do not have to base decisions on market forces.

Analysis

National Power After AI

Matthew Daniels Ben Chang
| July 2021

AI technologies will likely alter great power competitions in foundational ways, changing both how nations create power and their motives for wielding it against one another. This paper is a first step toward thinking more expansively about AI & national power and seeking pragmatic insights for long-term U.S. competition with authoritarian governments.

Data Snapshot

Locating AI Research in the Map of Science

Autumn Toney
| July 14, 2021

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. Our first series of Snapshots will introduce CSET’s Map of Science and explore the underlying data and analytic utility of this new tool. Check in every two weeks to see our newest Snapshot, and keep an eye out for the future release of CSET’s Map of Science user interface, which will enable users to interact with the Map directly.

Analysis

AI Accidents: An Emerging Threat

Zachary Arnold Helen Toner
| July 2021

As modern machine learning systems become more widely used, the potential costs of malfunctions grow. This policy brief describes how trends we already see today—both in newly deployed artificial intelligence systems and in older technologies—show how damaging the AI accidents of the future could be. It describes a wide range of hypothetical but realistic scenarios to illustrate the risks of AI accidents and offers concrete policy suggestions to reduce these risks.

Data Visualization

National Cybersecurity Center Map

Dakota Cary Jennifer Melot
| July 2021

China wants to be a “cyber powerhouse” (网络强国). At the heart of this mission is the sprawling 40 km2 campus of the National Cybersecurity Center. Formally called the National Cybersecurity Talent and Innovation Base (国家网络安全人才与创新基地), the NCC is being built in Wuhan. The campus, which China began constructing in 2017 and is still building, includes seven centers for research, talent cultivation, and entrepreneurship; two government-focused laboratories; and a National Cybersecurity School.

Analysis

China’s National Cybersecurity Center

Dakota Cary
| July 2021

China’s National Cybersecurity Center (NCC) resides on a 40 km2 plot in Wuhan. As one indication of its significance, the Chinese Communist Party’s highest-ranking members have an oversight committee for the facility. Over the next decade, the NCC will provide the talent, innovation, and indigenization of cyber capabilities that China’s Ministry of State Security, Ministry of Public Security, and People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force hacking teams lack. Though still under construction, the NCC’s first class of graduates will cross the stage in June 2022.

Data Snapshot

Coloring the Map of Science

Autumn Toney
| June 30, 2021

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. Our first series of Snapshots will introduce CSET’s Map of Science and explore the underlying data and analytic utility of this new tool. Check in every two weeks to see our newest Snapshot, and keep an eye out for the future release of CSET’s Map of Science user interface, which will enable users to interact with the Map directly.

Data Visualization

PARAT – Tracking the Activity of AI Companies

Rebecca Gelles Zachary Arnold Ngor Luong Jennifer Melot
| June 2021

CSET’s Private-sector AI-Related Activity Tracker (PARAT) collects data related to companies’ AI research and development to inform analysis of the global AI sector. The global AI market is already expanding rapidly and is likely to continue growing in the coming years. Identifying “AI companies” helps illustrate the size and health of the AI industry in which they participate as well as the most sought-after skills and experience in the AI workforce.

Analysis

Poison in the Well

Andrew Lohn
| June 2021

Modern machine learning often relies on open-source datasets, pretrained models, and machine learning libraries from across the internet, but are those resources safe to use? Previously successful digital supply chain attacks against cyber infrastructure suggest the answer may be no. This report introduces policymakers to these emerging threats and provides recommendations for how to secure the machine learning supply chain.

Analysis

U.S. Demand for AI Certifications

Diana Gehlhaus Ines Pancorbo
| June 2021

This issue brief explores whether artificial intelligence and AI-related certifications serve as potential pathways to enter the U.S. AI workforce. The authors find that according to U.S. AI occupation job postings data over 2010–2020, there is little demand from employers for AI and AI-related certifications. From this perspective, such certifications appear to present more hype than promise.