Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

Truth, Lies, and Automation

Ben Buchanan (On leave) Andrew Lohn Micah Musser Katerina Sedova
| May 2021

Growing popular and industry interest in high-performing natural language generation models has led to concerns that such models could be used to generate automated disinformation at scale. This report examines the capabilities of GPT-3--a cutting-edge AI system that writes text--to analyze its potential misuse for disinformation. A model like GPT-3 may be able to help disinformation actors substantially reduce the work necessary to write disinformation while expanding its reach and potentially also its effectiveness.

Applications and implications


Ethics


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Data Snapshot

Creating a Map of Science and Measuring the Role of AI in it

Autumn Toney
| June 2021

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. Our first series of Snapshots will introduce CSET’s Map of Science and explore the underlying data and analytic utility of this new tool. Check in every two weeks to see our newest Snapshot, and keep an eye out for the future release of CSET’s Map of Science user interface, which will enable users to interact with the Map directly.

Using CSET’s new Map of Science to examine clusters of research publications, this data brief presents a comparative analysis of U.S. and Chinese research publication outputs. The authors find that global competition outcomes differ depending on the level of granularity when comparing research publication data. In a granular view of global scientific research, the United States and China together dominate almost two-thirds of the research publication output, with the rest of the world leading in more than one-third of publication output. In a general view of global scientific research, only China and the United States appear as leaders in research output.

Analysis

Research Security, Collaboration, and the Changing Map of Global R&D

Melissa Flagg Autumn Toney Paul Harris
| June 2021

The global map of research has shifted dramatically over the last 20 years. Annual global investment in research and development has tripled, and the United States’ share of both global R&D funding and total research output is diminishing. The open research system, with its expanding rates of investment and interconnectedness, has delivered tremendous benefits to many nations but also created new challenges for research integrity and security.

Analysis

China’s Foreign Technology Wish List

Ryan Fedasiuk Emily Weinstein Anna Puglisi
| May 2021

“Science and technology diplomats” act as brokers as part of China’s broader strategy to acquire foreign technology. Each year, they file hundreds of official reports on their activities. This issue brief illuminates trends in the 642 reports filed by the S&T directorates of Chinese embassies and consulates from 2015 to 2020, quantifying which types of technologies the Chinese government is most focused on acquiring, and from where.

Analysis

Truth, Lies, and Automation

Ben Buchanan (On leave) Andrew Lohn Micah Musser Katerina Sedova
| May 2021

Growing popular and industry interest in high-performing natural language generation models has led to concerns that such models could be used to generate automated disinformation at scale. This report examines the capabilities of GPT-3--a cutting-edge AI system that writes text--to analyze its potential misuse for disinformation. A model like GPT-3 may be able to help disinformation actors substantially reduce the work necessary to write disinformation while expanding its reach and potentially also its effectiveness.

Data Brief

China’s Artificial Intelligence Industry Alliance

Ngor Luong Zachary Arnold
| May 2021

As part of its strategy to achieve global leadership in AI, the Chinese government brings together local governments, academic institutions, and companies to establish collaboration platforms. This data brief examines the role of China’s Artificial Intelligence Industry Alliance in advancing its AI strategy, and the key players in the Chinese AI industry.

See our original translation of a 2018 PRC notice on cybersecurity competitions.

Read our original translation of China's 14th Five-Year Plan, which was passed by the National People's Congress in March, 2021, and covers the years 2021-2025.

Data Brief

AI and Industry

Eri Phinisee Autumn Toney Melissa Flagg
| May 2021

Artificial intelligence is said to be transforming the global economy and society in what some dub the “fourth industrial revolution.” This data brief analyzes media representations of AI and the alignments, or misalignments, with job postings that include the AI-related skills needed to make AI a practical reality. This potential distortion is important as the U.S. Congress places an increasing emphasis on AI. If government funds are shifted away from other areas of science and technology, based partly on the representations that leaders and the public are exposed to in the media, it is important to understand how those representations align with real jobs across the country.

Data Brief

Machine Intelligence for Scientific Discovery and Engineering Invention

Matthew Daniels Autumn Toney Melissa Flagg Charles Yang
| May 2021

The advantages of nations depend in part on their access to new inventions—and modern applications of artificial intelligence can help accelerate the creation of new inventions in the years ahead. This data brief is a first step toward understanding how modern AI and machine learning have begun accelerating growth across a wide array of science and engineering disciplines in recent years.