As technology competition intensifies between the United States and China, governments and policy researchers are looking for metrics to assess each country’s relative strengths and weaknesses. One measure of technology innovation increasingly used by the policy community is research output. Drawing on CSET’s experiences over the last four years, this post shares our best practices for using research output to study national technological competition and inform public policy.

Using CSET’s new Map of Science to examine clusters of research publications, this data brief presents a comparative analysis of U.S. and Chinese research publication outputs. The authors find that global competition outcomes differ depending on the level of granularity when comparing research publication data. In a granular view of global scientific research, the United States and China together dominate almost two-thirds of the research publication output, with the rest of the world leading in more than one-third of publication output. In a general view of global scientific research, only China and the United States appear as leaders in research output.

In the past decade, Chinese researchers have become increasingly prolific authors of highly cited AI publications, approaching the global research share of their U.S. counterparts. However, some analysts question the impact of Chinese publications; are they well respected internationally, and do they cover important topics? In this data brief, the authors build on prior analyses of top AI publications to provide a richer understanding of the two countries’ contributions to high-impact AI research.

Progress in artificial intelligence has led to growing concern about the capabilities of AI-powered surveillance systems. This data brief uses bibliometric analysis to chart recent trends in visual surveillance research — what share of overall computer vision research it comprises, which countries are leading the way, and how things have varied over time.

ETO’s Research Almanac provides high-level data on key trends in emerging technology research, including overall research output, growth, and trends among countries, research institutions, and companies active in R&D. This initial version of the Almanac focuses on topics and applications in artificial intelligence.

When the technology and policy communities use terms associated with trustworthy AI, could they be talking past one another? This paper examines the use of trustworthy AI keywords and the potential for an “Inigo Montoya problem” in trustworthy AI, inspired by "The Princess Bride" movie quote: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

This data brief explores how international collaboration relates to the impact and output of research publications. Focusing on the top 10 countries with the highest publication output from 2010 to 2019, the authors provide a comprehensive analysis across the major fields of science and technology.

Chinese and Russian government officials are keen to publicize their countries’ strategic partnership in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence. This report evaluates the scope of cooperation between China and Russia as well as relative trends over time in two key metrics of AI development: research publications and investment. The findings expose gaps between aspirations and reality, bringing greater accuracy and nuance to current assessments of Sino-Russian tech cooperation.

CSET’s CAT presents data related to countries' artificial intelligence ecosystems to give an overview of domestic capabilities, as well as insights on competitiveness and collaboration globally. It presents metrics on AI research, patents, and investment-related activities for AI overall and its various subfields.

This data brief identifies the most influential AI researchers in the United States between 2010 and 2021 via three metrics: number of AI publications, citations, and AI h-index. It examines their demographic profiles, career trajectories, and research collaboration rates, finding that most are men in the later stages of their career, largely concentrated in 10 elite universities and companies, and that nearly 70 percent of America’s top AI researchers were born abroad.

In this condensed version of his June 2022 report, written for Semiconductor Digest, John VerWey outlines how targeted investment incentives to increase U.S.-based advanced packaging capacity are also important for increasing semiconductor supply chain resilience.

The semiconductor industry and the U.S. government are engaged in ambitious plans to expand domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity. Previous CSET research has found that the CHIPS for America Act incentives, if carefully targeted and augmented by adequate regulatory and workforce support, could reverse the observable decline in U.S. semiconductor manufacturing capacity since 1990. This paper argues that targeted investment incentives to increase U.S.-based advanced packaging capacity are also important for innovation, supply chain security, and ongoing semiconductor industry leadership.

The U.S. semiconductor supply chain’s resilience will meaningfully increase only if current efforts to re-shore fabrication (that is, to situate more facilities that make its key parts in the United States) are met with commensurate efforts to re-shore upstream material production along with downstream assembly, test, and packaging (ATP) of finished microelectronics.

Vaccines keep the U.S. public healthy while safeguarding economic stability and biosecurity. This report assesses the domestic vaccine manufacturing landscape and identifies two major vulnerabilities: a reliance on foreign manufacturers and a lack of manufacturing redundancy. Maintaining a resilient vaccine supply will require the U.S. government to take steps to protect the existing supply, identify and monitor manufacturing vulnerabilities, and create a stronger domestic production base.

Technical leadership in the semiconductor industry has been a cornerstone of U.S. military and economic power for decades, but continued competitiveness is not guaranteed. This issue brief exploring the composition of the workforce bolstering U.S. leadership in the semiconductor industry concludes that immigration restrictions are directly at odds with U.S. efforts to secure its supply chains.

To reduce its dependence on the United States and its allies for semiconductors, China is building domestic semiconductor manufacturing facilities by importing U.S., Japanese, and Dutch semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In the longer term, it also hopes to indigenize this equipment to replace imports. U.S. and allied policy responses to China’s efforts will significantly affect its prospects for success in this challenging task.