Compete

Inside Beijing’s Chipmaking Offensive

Jacob Feldgoise and Hanna Dohmen
| July 14, 2025

CSET's Jacob Feldgoise and Hanna Dohmen outline China's market share gains in semiconductor manufacturing equipment, based on data from CSET ETO's updated Supply Chain Explorer.

On July 16, CSET hosted a webinar with a breakdown of CSET's latest data and analysis on the global semiconductor manufacturing equipment market.

AI System-to-Model Innovation

Jonah Schiestle and Andrew Imbrie
| July 2025

System-to-model innovation is an emerging innovation pathway in artificial intelligence that has driven progress in several prominent areas over the last decade. System-level innovations advance with the diffusion of AI and expand the base of contributors to leading-edge progress in the field. Countries that can identify and harness system-level innovations faster and more comprehensively will gain crucial economic and military advantages over competitors. This paper analyzes the benefits of system-to-model innovation and suggests a three-part framework to navigate the policy implications: protect, diffuse, and anticipate.

CSET’s Helen Toner shared her expert insights in an article published by WIRED. The article discusses the U.S. government’s plans to aggressively revoke visas for Chinese students, particularly those in sensitive research fields or with ties to the Chinese Communist Party.

CSET’s Cole McFaul was quoted in a segment aired by NPR’s All Things Considered. The segment discusses the U.S. government’s decision to revoke visas for certain Chinese students.

CSET’s Jack Corrigan shared his expert analysis in an op-ed published by Tech Policy Press. In his piece, he highlights the ongoing antitrust trial against Google and the broader implications for the future of the U.S. artificial intelligence industry.

Wuhan’s AI Development

William Hannas, Huey-Meei Chang, and Daniel Chou
| May 2025

Wuhan, China’s inland metropolis, is paving the way for a nationwide rollout of “embodied” artificial intelligence meant to fast-track scientific discovery, optimize production, streamline commerce, and facilitate state supervision of social activities. Grounded in real-world data, the AI grows smarter, offering a pathway to artificial “general” intelligence that will reinforce state ideology and boost economic goals. This report documents the genesis of Wuhan’s AGI initiative and its multifaceted deployment.

Maintaining long-term U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence will require policymakers to foster a diversified, contestable, and competitive market for AI systems. Today, however, incumbent technology companies maintain a distinct advantage in the production of large AI models, and they have the means and motion to use their control over key chokepoints in the AI supply chain (compute, data, foundation models, distribution channels) to stifle competition. This report explores the associated economic and national security risks, and offers recommendations for maintaining an open and competitive AI industry.

CSET’s Helen Toner shared her expert insights in an article published by Foreign Policy. The article explores the impact of renewed U.S. export restrictions on Nvidia and the broader implications for U.S.-China competition in artificial intelligence (AI). Nvidia announced it expects a $5.5 billion financial hit due to new licensing requirements for selling its H20 chips to China.

DeepSeek’s release of an open-weight frontier AI model

International Institute for Strategic Studies
| April 22, 2025

John Bansemer and Kyle Miller shared their expert analysis in a report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. In their piece, they highlight the release of DeepSeek’s open-weight AI model “R1” in January 2025 and its major impact on global AI competition, especially between China and the United States.