Updates
Policy.ai has temporarily moved to a once-a-month schedule while its usual author, Alex Friedland, is on parental leave. We’ll be back to biweekly this fall!
Worth Knowing
Check Mate?: The release of Huawei’s latest smartphone has some U.S. policymakers questioning whether government efforts to kneecap China’s semiconductor industry are actually working. On August 29, Huawei rolled out the Mate 60 Pro, a smartphone that reportedly runs on the powerful 7-nanometer Kirin 9000 processor. Designed and produced in China by Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corp. (SMIC), the Kirin 9000 still lags a couple generations behind the most advanced Apple chips. But if Huawei can integrate the chip at scale, it would mark a major victory for China’s domestic technology sector—and potentially a setback for U.S. national security strategy. Some industry experts have warned that the semiconductor export control regime introduced by the Commerce Department last October may have a limited effect and simultaneously galvanize China’s efforts to build a homegrown chip sector. Huawei’s announcement appears to add credence to that argument. U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the government is working to get more information on the Kirin 9000’s specs and determine whether U.S. export controls were violated in its production. Rep. Mike Gallagher, chairman of the House Select Committee on the CCP, called on policymakers to block all U.S. technology exports to SMIC and Huawei. Across the Pacific, the Global Times, a CCP-affiliated media outlet, boasted that the “resurgence of Huawei smartphones … is enough to prove that the US’ extreme suppression has failed.”
- More: Huawei Building Secret Network for Chips, Trade Group Warns | Export controls effectively constrain China’s advance in microchip production | Through a Glass, Darkly (CSET) | An Act of War: Inside America’s Silicon Blockade Against China
- More: With Climate Panel as a Beacon, Global Group Takes on Misinformation | AI Will Change American Elections, but Not in the Obvious Way | Forecasting Potential Misuses of Language Models for Disinformation Campaigns—and How to Reduce Risk (CSET) | How Much Money Could Large Language Models Save Propagandists? (CSET)
Government Updates
The Department of Defense announces its Replicator Initiative: On September 6, Deputy Secretary of Defense Kathleen Hicks announced a new Defense Department plan, called the Replicator Initiative. The initiative aims to boost the production of autonomous systems with the ultimate goal being “to field attritable autonomous systems at a scale of multiple thousands, in multiple domains, within the next 18-to-24 months.” Deputy Secretary Hicks framed the plan in the context of the department’s “need to innovate with urgency in this enduring age of strategic competition with the [People’s Republic of China].” Some of these systems will likely incorporate a range of AI applications, from autonomous navigation to computer vision, among others. Another key aspect of the initiative involves getting autonomous systems from development into the field more rapidly. The Replicator Initiative announcement came on the heels of recent detailed reporting from the New York Times about the U.S. Air Force’s plans to incorporate AI-enabled autonomous vehicles into operations, including the Valkyrie experimental aircraft. The Air Force envisions such systems operating in swarms in dangerous combat environments. See Dr. Jaret Riddick’s initial reaction to the Replicator announcement and other recent congressional proposals on autonomy.
US-China Science partnership is floundering: In late August, the Biden administration sought to temporarily extend the U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement (STA). The agreement, which has been in force since 1979 and renewed roughly every five years, sets norms for science collaborations; however, the administration renewed the agreement for only six months amid concerns about Chinese intellectual property theft and espionage. The STA was the first U.S.-Chinese bilateral agreement after normalizing relations, and experts disagree on the potential impact of withdrawing from the agreement. Some believe that the STA is an important channel through which to maintain communication about science and technology. They argue that ending the agreement would have a chilling effect on collaboration among university researchers and scientists in the United States and China that would ultimately hinder scientific progress in the United States at a critical moment. Others, including CSET’s Anna Puglisi, have noted that Chinese actions like restricting access to its open academic publications should lead policymakers to carefully evaluate the costs and benefits of maintaining the agreement. You can visit CSET’s website to read some of our past research on technological decoupling.
Congressional hearings roundup: In its recent push to explore AI regulation, Congress has convened a number of public and closed-door meetings in the past month on different aspects of artificial intelligence applications.
- On September 7, CSET’s Anna Puglisi testified before the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources in a “Hearing to Examine Recent Advances in Artificial Intelligence and the Department of Energy’s Role in Ensuring U.S. Competitiveness and Security in Emerging Technologies.” Anna and several other speakers testified on advancements in AI and the potential impact on and role in regulating AI for the U.S. Department of Energy.
- On September 12, Senator John Hickenlooper (D-CO), Chair of the Subcommittee on Consumer Protection, Product Safety and Data Security, convened a hearing on “The Need for Transparency in Artificial Intelligence.” The hearing focused on how to identify different AI applications as beneficial or high-risk and how to most effectively create policies for trustworthiness.
- The next day, September 13, Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) hosted industry leaders alongside labor and civil rights groups on Capitol Hill for an AI insight forum. The first of a number of planned meetings to collect a range of insights on how best to regulate AI, attendees included Google CEO Sundar Pichai; Tesla, X and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk; NVIDIA President Jensen Huang; Meta founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg; Eric Schmidt; OpenAI CEO Sam Altman; and Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella.
- Also on September 13, the Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Privacy, Technology, and the Law held one in a series of hearings on how to best govern AI. The hearing built on a bi-partisan framework developed by Chair Senator Richard Blumenthal (D-CT) and Ranking Member Senator Josh Hawley (R-MO) for developing AI laws and regulations. The hearing featured testimony from Woodrow Hartzog, a Professor of Law at Washington University in St. Louis, William Dally, Chief Scientist and Senior Vice President of Research at NVIDIA, and Brad Smith, Vice Chair and President of Microsoft.
- Today, the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee and House Oversight and Accountability’s subcommittee on cybersecurity and government innovation will host hearings on federal agency acquisition and use of AI.
Job Openings
We’re hiring! Please apply or share the roles below with candidates in your network:
- Director of Communications and Strategic Engagement: We are currently seeking applications for a new Director of Communications and Strategic Engagement to lead CSET’s donor engagement, media outreach and digital portfolios. Apply by September 18, 2023
In Translation
CSET’s translations of significant foreign language documents on AI
CSET’s translations of significant foreign language documents on AI
China’s Semiconductor-Related Export Controls: This translation is a compilation of China’s semiconductor-related export controls, as of September 7, 2023. It combines translations of the semiconductor-related portions of three official Chinese government documents: (1) the Chinese Catalogue of Technologies Prohibited or Restricted from Export, published in September 2008, (2) adjustments made to the Catalogue in August 2020, and (3) additional proposed adjustments to the Catalogue released for public feedback in December 2022.
Chinese Scientific Data Regulations: Measures for the Management of Scientific Data. This regulation governs the collection, protection, and sharing of scientific data. The regulation states that, as a general principle, scientific data should be shareable, but it also strictly limits the sharing of certain types of data, such as classified information and data to be shared with foreign researchers.
China’s System for Cultivating Homegrown Cyber Security Talent: 2022 White Paper on the Live-Fire Capabilities of Cybersecurity Talents: Attack and Defense Live-Fire Capability Edition. This white paper, drafted by the Chinese Ministry of Education in concert with several universities, details China’s system for cultivating homegrown “live-fire” cybersecurity talent. The authors describe the methods China uses to train cyber talent—including formal education, corporate training, certification courses, competitions, and bug bounties—but warn that in spite of these efforts, the country’s supply of cybersecurity professionals remains woefully insufficient. The white paper concludes with policy recommendations designed to ameliorate the mismatch between the skills of newly minted graduates and the actual cybersecurity needs of Chinese companies.
If you have a foreign-language document related to security and emerging technologies that you’d like translated into English, CSET may be able to help! Click here for details.
What’s New at CSET
REPORTS
- Understanding the Global Gain-of-Function Research Landscape by Caroline Schuerger, Steph Batalis, Katherine Quinn, Ronnie Kinoshita, Owen Daniels, and Anna Puglisi
- Bayh-Dole Patent Trends: Charting Developments in Government-Funded Intellectual Property Through Time by Sara Abdulla and Jack Corrigan
- Onboard AI: Constraints and Limitations by Kyle Miller and Andrew Lohn
- Assessing South Korea’s AI Ecosystem by Cole McFaul, Husanjot Chahal, Rebecca Gelles, and Margarita Konaev
- U.S. and Chinese Military AI Purchases: An Assessment of Military Procurement Data between April and November 2020 by Margarita Konaev, Ryan Fedasiuk, Jack Corrigan, Ellen Lu, Alex Stephenson, Helen Toner, and Rebecca Gelles
- Translation Snapshot: Chinese Overseas Talent Recruitment by Ben Murphy
PUBLICATIONS
- Foreign Affairs: The Russians Are Getting Better: What Moscow Has Learned in Ukraine by Margarita Konaev and Owen Daniels
- CSET: Delivering Battlefield Autonomy At-Scale for DOD: Big Announcements from the Pentagon and Congress by Jaret Riddick
- CSET: Levers for Improving Diversity in Computer Science by Parth Sarin
- CSET: Scoping AI for National Security: An Impossible Task? by Emily Weinstein and Ngor Luong
- Breaking Defense: How Revisiting Naval Aviation’s Lessons Can (and Cannot) Inform Military AI Innovation by Owen Daniels
- Barron’s: The U.S. Wants to Target China’s Dangerous AI Systems. It’s Easier Said Than Done by Emily Weinstein
- The Hill: In the AI Era, Adaptable Policy is a Necessity by Jack Corrigan and Dewey Murdick
- CSET: Understanding AI Harms: An Overview by Heather Frase and Owen Daniels
- Lawfare: The Next Frontier in AI Regulation is Procedure by Zachary Arnold and Micah Musser
- CSET: Highlights from the National Cyber Workforce and Education Strategy by Ali Crawford
EMERGING TECHNOLOGY OBSERVATORY
- Survey: We’ve launched a 3-minute user survey to mark ETO’s first anniversary and guide our future work. Whether you’re an ETO power user or have never used the platform, your candid input will help us improve! Access the survey here.
- ETO Blog: U.S.-China Research Collaboration Might Be Falling – But Not in AI
- ETO Blog: Exploring Trustworthy AI Research with the Map of Science, Part 3: Leading Research Institutions
- ETO Blog: Exploring Trustworthy AI Research with the Map of Science, Part 2: Leading Countries
EVENT RECAPS
- On September 13, Senior Fellow Emelia Probasco, Senior Research Analyst Jack Corrigan, and Research Analyst Ali Crawford discussed the steps the United States can take to run faster in technological innovation over the long haul with Deputy Director of Analysis and Research Fellow Margarita Konaev.
- On September 7, Senior Fellow Anna Puglisi testified before the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee for a hearing on “recent advances in artificial intelligence and the Department of Energy’s role in ensuring U.S. competitiveness and security in emerging technologies.” Read her testimony and watch the full hearing here.
IN THE NEWS
- Newsweek: Russia Redeploying Troops Amid ‘Pressure’ on Defensive Lines: U.K. (Brendan Cole cited The Russians Are Getting Better: What Moscow Has Learned in Ukraine)
- Fox News: Three top takeaways from the Senate Energy committee hearing on DOE and AI (Elizabeth Elkind quoted Anna Puglisi’s September 7 Senate testimony)
- South China Morning Post: Chinese firm launches satellite from mobile sea platform, testing potential tech for national space programme (Ling Xin quoted Sam Bresnick)
- The Wire China: Who is Qualcomm Ventures? (Aaron McNicholas quoted Ngor Luong)
- The Economist: AI will change American elections, but not in the obvious way (cited How Much Money Could Large Language Models Save Propagandists)
- Foreign Policy: Biden Puts U.S.-China Science Partnership on Life Support (Christina Lu and Clara Gutman-Argemí quoted Puglisi)
- The New York Times: The U.S. Regulates Cars, Radio and TV. When Will It Regulate A.I.? (Ian Prasad Philbrick quoted Dewey Murdick)
- NPR: U.S. restrictions on tech investment in China bolster China’s policy of self-reliance (John Ruwitch interviewed Emily Weinstein)
- WIRED: Scammers Used ChatGPT to Unleash a Crypto Botnet on X (Will Knight quoted Musser)
- Foreign Policy: Biden Takes Measured Approach on China Investment Controls (Kevin Klyman cited U.S. Outbound Investment into Chinese AI Companies)
- The Wall Street Journal: China, U.S. Test Intelligent-Drone Swarms in Race for Military AI Dominance (Alastair Gale quoted Margarita Konaev)
- Nikkei Asia: Turkish drone maker Baykar seeks to extend global influence (Ken Moriyasu and Sinan Tavsan quoted Lauren Kahn)
- South China Morning Post: Inside China Podcast: Follow the AI money: China, the Quad and Southeast Asia (Interviewed Luong)
- Wall Street Journal: The U.S. Is Turning Away From Its Biggest Scientific Partner at a Precarious Time (Karen Hao quoted Emily Weinstein)
- Time/Bloomberg: China Wants to Regulate Its Artificial Intelligence Sector Without Crushing It (Sarah Zheng and Jane Zhang quoted Helen Toner)
- Fox Business: New US tech restrictions on China have investors wary, watching for retaliation (Eric Revell quoted Ngor Luong)
- CNN: China’s sitting on a goldmine of genetic data – and it doesn’t want to share (Jessie Yeung quoted Puglisi’s August 2021 Senate testimony)
What We’re Reading
Article: Elon Musk’s Shadow Rule | The New Yorker
Article: What Does a Drone Maker Think of The Pentagon’s New Replicator Program? | Forbes
Report: The Rise of Generative AI and the Coming Era of Social Media Manipulation 3.0 | RAND
Upcoming Events
- November 1: CSET and Georgetown Center for Security Studies, Kalaris Conference featuring Dewey Murdick, Emmy Probasco, and Kevin Wolf
What else is going on? Suggest stories, documents to translate & upcoming events here.