Updates
Policy.ai has temporarily moved to a once-a-month schedule. Want to make sure you don’t miss any of CSET’s expert analysis? Update your preferences!
Plus: 2.5 weeks left to apply for up to $750,000 to fund research projects on AI Assurance. Scroll down to learn more about our Foundational Research Grants Program.
Worth Knowing
OpenAI, Anthropic, and Inflection AI — A Generative AI News Roundup: The drumbeat of generative AI releases doesn’t show many signs of slowing down:
- On Tuesday, Anthropic released its new large language model, Claude 2. The company says the new model boasts modest improvements over its previous models and, unlike earlier versions of Claude, is broadly available in beta form to U.S. and UK users through a chat interface. As we covered in May, Anthropic debuted a version of Claude with an exceptionally large context window — 100,000 tokens compared to GPT-4’s 32,000 token maximum — meaning it could ingest and process roughly 75,000 words at once. At launch, Claude 2 has the same 100,000 token context window, but Anthropic says the model has been trained to have a 200,000 token window, which it may enable in the future.
- Last week, OpenAI opened up access to two of its most powerful tools. The company rolled out its “Code Interpreter” plug-in to all ChatGPT Plus subscribers last week, allowing paying subscribers to run code, upload and access files and create data visualizations in the ChatGPT app interface. OpenAI also opened up GPT-4 access to all paying API customers. The company had been offering GPT-4 API access on a limited basis since March. The broader release means more developers will be able to build apps and services on top of OpenAI’s most powerful LLM.
- Last month, Inflection AI — an AI startup founded in 2022 — closed a $1.3 billion funding round that values the company at $4 billion, making it the second-most valuable generative AI startup behind only OpenAI. The small company, which released its AI-powered personal assistant — Pi — in May, is notable for reasons beyond its high valuation: the company is led by DeepMind co-founder Mustafa Suleyman and counts Bill Gates, Eric Schmidt, and Nvidia among its biggest investors. The company has already announced plans to turn its financial firepower into computing horsepower: working with Nvidia and the GPU cloud company CoreWeave, Inflection plans to build a 22,000-strong Nvidia H100 GPU cluster, which will become one of the world’s most powerful AI training clusters when finished.
- More: AI is killing the old web, and the new web struggles to be born | The A.I. Wars Heat Up as Elon Musk and Meta Enter the Ring | AI-Generated Election Content Is Here, And The Social Networks Aren’t Prepared
- The Dutch government officially announced new restrictions that will limit key semiconductor manufacturing equipment (SME) exports to China. The Netherlands is home to some of the world’s most important SME firms, including ASML, the only company currently capable of producing the extreme ultraviolet lithography machines needed to manufacture the world’s most advanced chips. Officials from the Netherlands and Japan — another key SME exporter — had agreed in January to join the United States in limiting SME exports to China, but the details and timeline of new restrictions were unknown. The new Dutch controls are set to go into effect on September 1, and will restrict exports of a few categories of advanced SME tools, including immersion deep ultraviolet (DUV) lithography machines, which are needed to produce chips up to the 7nm node (exports of extreme ultraviolet lithography tools, needed for nodes smaller than 7nm, were already covered by earlier controls). Japan’s new controls, which cover a similar set of items, go into effect this month.
- Beijing announced its own export controls on gallium and germanium, two metals used to manufacture semiconductors and other electronics. Under the new system — which goes into effect August 1 — exporters will need to apply for licenses from China’s Ministry of Commerce in order to sell the two metals abroad. Observers say the new restrictions are a “not-so-subtle” response to the export controls imposed by the United States and its allies to limit China’s access to high-end chips and chipmaking tools. While China’s new rules are not an outright export ban, a lot rides on how liberal the Chinese government is with its licenses. China accounts for approximately 60 and 90 percent of the world’s germanium and gallium production, respectively, and significant export restrictions could have a major impact on a number of important supply chains.
- More: Germany will adopt China strategy to reduce reliance on Beijing | Chinese Firms Are Evading Chip Controls | Intel to build $33-billion chip plant in Germany | Micron, Blacklisted by Beijing, to Pump $600 Million Into China Expansion | India aims to produce first semiconductors within 18 months
Government Updates
Schumer Introduces Plan for Developing AI Legislation: In a June 21 event at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer introduced a plan to develop “comprehensive legislation” to regulate AI. As Schumer described in his speech, his plan consists of two-parts: a proposed “framework for action” and a process for getting lawmakers up to speed on AI issues. While Sen. Schumer did not endorse any specific AI legislation, his SAFE Innovation Framework outlines five key objectives for Senate action: that future AI policy protects national and economic security, supports responsible and accountable AI development and deployment, ensures that AI systems are aligned with democratic values, promotes explainable and transparent AI systems, and maintains U.S. leadership in AI innovation. Schumer’s AI crash course for senators, meanwhile, is already underway; a series of three senators-only briefings on AI — including the first-ever classified AI briefing — kicked off last month, and Schumer has announced plans to host a number of “AI insight forums” featuring AI experts, developers, executives, and other impacted groups later this year.
White House Reportedly Plans More Compute Restrictions on China: The Biden administration is considering new restrictions that would limit China’s access to cloud computing resources and tighten previously enacted controls on exports of high-end semiconductors used in AI applications, The Wall Street Journal reported last week. Last October, the Commerce Department introduced sweeping export controls that aimed to limit China’s access to high-end semiconductors and the tools required to make them. Since those controls were introduced, U.S. officials have worked closely with allies to further restrict China’s access to key inputs (see the story above on Dutch export controls). The country’s AI developers can still legally train AI models on the world’s most advanced chips — which cannot be legally imported — by using data centers outside China, in addition to those stockpiled prior to the October controls. According to the Wall Street Journal report, the new restrictions, which are still being finalized, would require certain cloud-service providers to obtain a license from the government before providing access to advanced AI chips to Chinese customers. The administration is also considering tightening the performance and bandwidth limits on the chips that can be exported to China. Soon after the Commerce Department announced its export controls last year, Nvidia — the world’s leading AI chip designer — introduced a new chip, the A800, that fell just below the controlled thresholds. While tighter performance limits remain unconfirmed, the Chinese market is already responding as if the A800’s days are numbered — prices have already jumped by a reported 20 percent to nearly $15,000 per card.
The European Commission Signs off on EU-U.S. Data Flow Agreement: On Monday, the European Commission approved a framework to allow companies to transfer data between the EU and United States. The decision comes nearly three years after the EU’s top court threw out the previous EU-U.S. data-sharing agreement because it did not adequately protect EU citizens’ data privacy. The approval of the new agreement, which was struck last March, should come as a relief to many U.S. tech companies. Without an agreement in place, firms such as Meta, Google, and Mailchimp have faced significant fines and service disruptions because of their handling of European data. While the European Commission’s decision is the last step needed to get the data flowing, it doesn’t necessarily mean the saga is over. The previous two data-sharing agreements have both been struck down as the result of lawsuits brought by Austrian lawyer and privacy advocate Max Schrems. Schrems has already said he plans to challenge the new agreement and expects the European Court of Justice to take up his complaint early next year.
Foundational Research Grants
CSET’s Foundational Research Grants (FRG) is calling for research ideas on AI assurance for general-purpose systems operating in open-ended domains. FRG is looking to award up to $750,000 per project, with expressions of interest due Tuesday, August 1 — click here for full details.
Job Openings
We’re hiring! Please apply or share the roles below with candidates in your network:
- Research/Senior Fellow – Emerging Technology Workforce: This Fellow will lead and coordinate our efforts on the Workforce LOR, including shaping priorities, laying out an overall research strategy, overseeing the execution of the research and production of reports, and helping to hire and manage supporting researchers. Apply by July 24, 2023
What’s New at CSET
REPORTS
- Autonomous Cyber Defense: A Roadmap from Lab to Ops by Andrew Lohn, Anna Knack, Ant Burke and Krystal Jackson
- Building the Cybersecurity Workforce Pipeline: A Study of the National Centers of Academic Excellence in Cybersecurity by Luke Koslosky, Ali Crawford and Sara Abdulla
- The Inigo Montoya Problem for Trustworthy AI: The Use of Keywords in Policy and Research by Emelia Probasco, Autumn Toney and Kathleen Curlee
- China’s Cognitive AI Research: Emulating Human Cognition on the Way to General Purpose AI by William Hannas, Huey-Meei Chang, Max Riesenhuber and Daniel Chou
- Defending the Ultimate High Ground: China’s Progress Toward Space Resilience and Responsive Launch by Corey Crowell and Sam Bresnick
PUBLICATIONS
- Time Magazine: Why China’s Data Denial to Researchers Could Backfire by Dewey Murdick and Owen Daniels
- The Diplomat: China Isn’t Losing Sleep Over ChatGPT by Micah Musser
- Lawfare: Finding Language Models in Influence Operations by Josh Goldstein and Andrew Lohn
- CSET: Large Language Models in Biology by Steph Batalis, Caroline Schuerger and Vikram Venkatram
- CSET: Translating AI Risk Management Into Practice by Mina Narayanan and Heather Frase
- CSET: What We’re Reading on AI Regulation, Part 2
- CSET: For Export Controls on AI, Don’t Forget the “Catch-All” Basics by Emily Weinstein and Kevin Wolf
- CSET: Securing AI Makes for Safer AI by John Bansemer and Andrew Lohn
- CSET: Data Snapshot: Examining Key Tech Areas in Government Contracts Data by Christian Schoeberl
EMERGING TECHNOLOGY OBSERVATORY
- New Tool: ETO’s Open-source software Research and Community Activity (ORCA) tool compiles data on open-source software (OSS) used in science and technology research.
- ETO Blog: How open-source software fuels research: introducing ORCA
- ETO Blog: How we define “AI safety research” in our tools
EVENT RECAPS
- On June 22, CSET Executive Director Dewey Murdick testified before the House Science Committee on the steps the United States can take to support AI innovation, prevent authoritarian governments from surpassing it in AI, and improve user safety. Read his testimony and watch the full hearing here.
- On June 29, CSET’s Anna Puglisi, Zachary Arnold, Luke Koslosky, Jacob Feldgoise, Ali Crawford and CSET alumni Tina Huang and Remco Zwetsloot presented their work on STEM talent acquisition, retention, and development at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine’s International Talent Programs in the Changing Global Environment committee meeting.
IN THE NEWS
- The New York Times: Chips Make It Tough for the U.S. to Quit China (Ana Swanson quoted Emily Weinstein)
- The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Looks to Restrict China’s Access to Cloud Computing to Protect Advanced Technology (Yuka Hayashi and John D. McKinnon quoted Weinstein)
- The Wall Street Journal: U.S. Grapples With Potential Threats From Chinese AI (Andrew Duehren and Ryan Tracy quoted Weinstein and cited U.S. Outbound Investment into Chinese AI Companies)
- The Wall Street Journal: How a Chip Guru Left South Korea and Wound Up Accused of Leaking Tech to China (Jiyoung Sohn and Yang Jie quoted Weinstein)
- WIRED: The U.S. Navy, NATO, and NASA Are Using a Shady Chinese Company’s Encryption Chips (Andy Greenberg quoted Weinstein)
- ABC News: The rise of artificial intelligence raises serious concerns for national security (Helen Toner appeared on ABC News Live)
- Financial Times: China to lay down AI rules with emphasis on content control (Qianer Liu quoted Toner)
- The Washington Post: Will China overtake the U.S. on AI? Probably not. Here’s why. (Meaghan Tobin quoted Toner)
- CyberScoop: Does the world need an arms control treaty for AI? (Elias Groll quoted Toner)
- Politifact: What is generative AI and why is it suddenly everywhere? Here’s how it works (Sofia Bliss-Carrascosa and Jeff Cercone quoted Toner)
- The New York Times: A.I.’s Use in Elections Sets Off a Scramble for Guardrails (Tiffany Hsu and Steven Lee Myers quoted Josh Goldstein)
- Forbes: AI-Generated Election Content Is Here. The Social Networks Aren’t Prepared (Irene Benedicto quoted Goldstein)
- Foreign Policy: Chinese Firms Are Evading Chip Controls (Tim Fist, Lennart Heim, and Jordan Schneider cited Silicon Twist: Managing the Chinese Military’s Access to AI Chips)
- HuffPost: Is America Ready For AI-Powered Politics? (Matt Shuham cited Truth, Lies, and Automation: How Language Models Could Change Disinformation)
- NPR: AI-generated text is hard to spot. It could play a big role in the 2024 campaign (Huo Jingnan quoted Micah Musser)
- Reuters: Amid U.S.-China rivalry, a landmark science deal faces new scrutiny (Michael Martina quoted Anna Puglisi)
- The Register: China striving to be first source of artificial general intelligence, says think tank (Simon Sharwood cited China’s Cognitive AI Research: Emulating Human Cognition on the Way to General Purpose AI)
- The Washington Post: Congress is racing to regulate AI. Silicon Valley is eager to teach them how. (Cat Zakrzewski and Cristiano Lima wrote about Dewey Murdick)
- VentureBeat: Hugging Face CEO tells US House open-source AI is ‘extremely aligned’ with American interests (Sharon Goldman wrote about Murdick)
What We’re Reading
Article: What the Pentagon Thinks About Artificial Intelligence, Kathleen Hicks, Politico (June 2023)
Report: National Artificial Intelligence Advisory Committee Year 1 Report, National Artificial Intelligence Advisory Committee (May 2023)
Paper: An Overview of Catastrophic AI Risks, Dan Hendrycks, Mantas Mazeika and Thomas Woodside, Center for AI Safety (July 2023)
Editorial: Stop talking about tomorrow’s AI doomsday when AI poses risks today, Nature (June 2023)