Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Annual Report

CSET at Five

Center for Security and Emerging Technology
| March 2024

In honor of CSET’s fifth birthday, this annual report is a look at CSET’s successes in 2023 and over the course of the past five years. It explores CSET’s different lines of research and cross-cutting projects, and spotlights some of its most impactful research products.

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Data Snapshot

Coloring the Map of Science

Autumn Toney
| June 30, 2021

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. Our first series of Snapshots introduced CSET’s Map of Science and explored the underlying data and analytic utility of this new tool, which enables users to interact with the Map directly.

Data Visualization

PARAT – Tracking the Activity of AI Companies

Rebecca Gelles Zachary Arnold Ngor Luong Jennifer Melot
| June 2021

CSET’s Private-sector AI-Related Activity Tracker (PARAT) collects data related to companies’ AI research and development to inform analysis of the global AI sector. The global AI market is already expanding rapidly and is likely to continue growing in the coming years. Identifying “AI companies” helps illustrate the size and health of the AI industry in which they participate as well as the most sought-after skills and experience in the AI workforce.

Analysis

Poison in the Well

Andrew Lohn
| June 2021

Modern machine learning often relies on open-source datasets, pretrained models, and machine learning libraries from across the internet, but are those resources safe to use? Previously successful digital supply chain attacks against cyber infrastructure suggest the answer may be no. This report introduces policymakers to these emerging threats and provides recommendations for how to secure the machine learning supply chain.

Analysis

U.S. Demand for AI Certifications

Diana Gehlhaus Ines Pancorbo
| June 2021

This issue brief explores whether artificial intelligence and AI-related certifications serve as potential pathways to enter the U.S. AI workforce. The authors find that according to U.S. AI occupation job postings data over 2010–2020, there is little demand from employers for AI and AI-related certifications. From this perspective, such certifications appear to present more hype than promise.

Analysis

Machine Learning and Cybersecurity

Micah Musser Ashton Garriott
| June 2021

Cybersecurity operators have increasingly relied on machine learning to address a rising number of threats. But will machine learning give them a decisive advantage or just help them keep pace with attackers? This report explores the history of machine learning in cybersecurity and the potential it has for transforming cyber defense in the near future.

Data Snapshot

Creating a Map of Science and Measuring the Role of AI in it

Autumn Toney
| June 16, 2021

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. Our first series of Snapshots introduced CSET’s Map of Science and explored the underlying data and analytic utility of this new tool, which enables users to interact with the Map directly.

Using CSET’s new Map of Science to examine clusters of research publications, this data brief presents a comparative analysis of U.S. and Chinese research publication outputs. The authors find that global competition outcomes differ depending on the level of granularity when comparing research publication data. In a granular view of global scientific research, the United States and China together dominate almost two-thirds of the research publication output, with the rest of the world leading in more than one-third of publication output. In a general view of global scientific research, only China and the United States appear as leaders in research output.

Analysis

Research Security, Collaboration, and the Changing Map of Global R&D

Melissa Flagg Autumn Toney Paul Harris
| June 2021

The global map of research has shifted dramatically over the last 20 years. Annual global investment in research and development has tripled, and the United States’ share of both global R&D funding and total research output is diminishing. The open research system, with its expanding rates of investment and interconnectedness, has delivered tremendous benefits to many nations but also created new challenges for research integrity and security.

Analysis

China’s Foreign Technology Wish List

Ryan Fedasiuk Emily S. Weinstein Anna Puglisi
| May 2021

“Science and technology diplomats” act as brokers as part of China’s broader strategy to acquire foreign technology. Each year, they file hundreds of official reports on their activities. This issue brief illuminates trends in the 642 reports filed by the S&T directorates of Chinese embassies and consulates from 2015 to 2020, quantifying which types of technologies the Chinese government is most focused on acquiring, and from where.

Analysis

Truth, Lies, and Automation

Ben Buchanan Andrew Lohn Micah Musser Katerina Sedova
| May 2021

Growing popular and industry interest in high-performing natural language generation models has led to concerns that such models could be used to generate automated disinformation at scale. This report examines the capabilities of GPT-3--a cutting-edge AI system that writes text--to analyze its potential misuse for disinformation. A model like GPT-3 may be able to help disinformation actors substantially reduce the work necessary to write disinformation while expanding its reach and potentially also its effectiveness.