Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Analysis

AI Safety and Automation Bias

Lauren Kahn, Emelia Probasco, and Ronnie Kinoshita
| November 2024

Automation bias is a critical issue for artificial intelligence deployment. It can cause otherwise knowledgeable users to make crucial and even obvious errors. Organizational, technical, and educational leaders can mitigate these biases through training, design, and processes. This paper explores automation bias and ways to mitigate it through three case studies: Tesla’s autopilot incidents, aviation incidents at Boeing and Airbus, and Army and Navy air defense incidents.

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Data Brief

Counting AI Research

Daniel Chou
| July 2022

Tracking the output of a country’s researchers can inform assessments of its innovativeness or assist in evaluating the impact of certain funding initiatives. However, measuring research output is not as straightforward as it may seem. Using a detailed analysis that includes Chinese-language research publications, this data brief reveals that China's lead in artificial intelligence research output is greater than many English-language sources suggest.

Translation

Ministry of Foreign Affairs 2022 Budget

July 14, 2022

See our original translation of the 2022 budget of China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which manages China’s diplomatic efforts and its embassies and consulates overseas.

Analysis

China’s Advanced AI Research

William Hannas, Huey-Meei Chang, Daniel Chou, and Brian Fleeger
| July 2022

China is following a national strategy to lead the world in artificial intelligence by 2030, including by pursuing “general AI” that can act autonomously in novel circumstances. Open-source research identifies 30 Chinese institutions engaged in one or more of this project‘s aspects, including machine learning, brain-inspired AI, and brain-computer interfaces. This report previews a CSET pilot program that will track China’s progress and provide timely alerts.

Analysis

AI Faculty Shortages

Remco Zwetsloot and Jack Corrigan
| July 2022

Universities are the engines that power the AI talent pipeline, but mounting evidence suggests that U.S. computer science departments do not have enough faculty to meet growing student interest. This paper explores the potential mismatch between supply and demand in AI education, discusses possible causes and consequences, and offers recommendations for increasing teaching capacity at U.S. universities.

Read our original translation of the 2022 budget for the National Natural Science Foundation of China.

Translation

Chinese Academy of Sciences 2022 Budget

June 30, 2022

Read our original translation of the 2022 budget for the Chinese Academy of Sciences.

Analysis

Silicon Twist

Ryan Fedasiuk, Karson Elmgren, and Ellen Lu
| June 2022

The Chinese military’s progress in artificial intelligence largely depends on continued access to high-end semiconductors. By analyzing thousands of purchasing records, this policy brief offers a detailed look at how China’s military comes to access these devices. The authors find that most computer chips ordered by Chinese military units are designed by American companies, and outline steps that the U.S. government could take to curtail their access.

CSET Senior Fellow Andrew Lohn testified before the House of Representatives Homeland Security Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Innovation at a hearing on "Securing the Future: Harnessing the Potential of Emerging Technologies While Mitigating Security Risks." Lohn discussed the application of AI systems in cybersecurity and AI’s vulnerabilities.

Analysis

Sustaining and Growing the U.S. Semiconductor Advantage: A Primer

Owen Daniels and Will Hunt
| June 2022

As an integral player in advanced semiconductor supply chains, the United States enjoys advantages over China in producing and accessing chips for artificial intelligence and other leading-edge computing technologies. However, a lack of domestic production capacity threatens U.S. semiconductor access. The United States can strengthen its advantages by working with allies and partners to prevent China from producing leading-edge chips and by reshoring its own domestic chipmaking capacity.

Data Snapshot

Previewing PARAT 2.0

Autumn Toney
| June 22, 2022

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. This is the tenth and final in a series of Snapshots exploring CSET’s Private-sector AI-Related Activity Tracker (PARAT). We encourage you to explore PARAT, which collects data related to companies’ AI research and development to inform analysis of the global AI sector, and keep an eye out for updates on a new and expanded PARAT 2.0 in the future.