Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Analysis

AI Safety and Automation Bias

Lauren Kahn, Emelia Probasco, and Ronnie Kinoshita
| November 2024

Automation bias is a critical issue for artificial intelligence deployment. It can cause otherwise knowledgeable users to make crucial and even obvious errors. Organizational, technical, and educational leaders can mitigate these biases through training, design, and processes. This paper explores automation bias and ways to mitigate it through three case studies: Tesla’s autopilot incidents, aviation incidents at Boeing and Airbus, and Army and Navy air defense incidents.

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CSET submitted the following comment in response to a Request for Information (RFI) from the National Science Foundation (NSF) about the development of the newly established Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships (TIP) Directorate, in accordance with the CHIPS and Science Act of 2022.

Analysis

Adding Structure to AI Harm

Mia Hoffmann and Heather Frase
| July 2023

Real-world harms caused by the use of AI technologies are widespread. Tracking and analyzing them improves our understanding of the variety of harms and the circumstances that lead to their occurrence once AI systems are deployed. This report presents a standardized conceptual framework for defining, tracking, classifying, and understanding harms caused by AI. It lays out the key elements required for the identification of AI harm, their basic relational structure, and definitions without imposing a single interpretation of AI harm. The brief concludes with an example of how to apply and customize the framework while keeping its modular structure.

Jenny Jun's testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Indo-Pacific for a hearing titled, "Illicit IT: Bankrolling Kim Jong Un."

Data Brief

Voices of Innovation

Sara Abdulla and Husanjot Chahal
| July 2023

This data brief identifies the most influential AI researchers in the United States between 2010 and 2021 via three metrics: number of AI publications, citations, and AI h-index. It examines their demographic profiles, career trajectories, and research collaboration rates, finding that most are men in the later stages of their career, largely concentrated in 10 elite universities and companies, and that nearly 70 percent of America’s top AI researchers were born abroad.

Data Brief

Who Cares About Trust?

Autumn Toney and Emelia Probasco
| July 2023

Artificial intelligence-enabled systems are transforming society and driving an intense focus on what policy and technical communities can do to ensure that those systems are trustworthy and used responsibly. This analysis draws on prior work about the use of trustworthy AI terms to identify 18 clusters of research papers that contribute to the development of trustworthy AI. In identifying these clusters, the analysis also reveals that some concepts, like "explainability," are forming distinct research areas, whereas other concepts, like "reliability," appear to be accepted as metrics and broadly applied.

Data Snapshot

Tracking Industry in Government Contracts

Christian Schoeberl
| July 19, 2023

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. This short series explores how government procurement data can shed light on federal technological interest and utilization. It analyzes contract metadata, provided in a collaborative project with Govini, to track key emerging technologies through the federal procurement process.

Data Brief

Identifying AI Research

Christian Schoeberl, Autumn Toney, and James Dunham
| July 2023

The choice of method for surfacing AI-relevant publications impacts the ultimate research findings. This report provides a quantitative analysis of various methods available to researchers for identifying AI-relevant research within CSET’s merged corpus, and showcases the research implications of each method.

Analysis

Defending the Ultimate High Ground

Corey Crowell and Sam Bresnick
| July 2023

China has poured resources into improving the resilience of its space architecture. But how much progress has Beijing made? This issue brief analyzes China’s space resilience efforts and identifies areas where the United States may need to invest to keep pace.

Analysis

China’s Cognitive AI Research

William Hannas, Huey-Meei Chang, Max Riesenhuber, and Daniel Chou
| July 2023

An expert assessment of Chinese scientific literature validates China's public claim to be working toward artificial general intelligence (AGI). At a time when other nations are contemplating safeguards on AI research, China’s push toward AGI challenges emerging global norms, underscoring the need for a serious open-source monitoring program to serve as a foundation for outreach and mitigation.

Data Visualization

ETO Open-source software Research and Community Activity (ORCA)

Zachary Arnold and Jennifer Melot
| July 11, 2023

ETO’s Open-source software Research and Community Activity (ORCA) tool compiles data on open-source software (OSS) used in science and technology research.