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AI Safety, Security, and Stability Among Great Powers: Options, Challenges, and Lessons Learned for Pragmatic Engagement

Andrew Imbrie

Elsa Kania

December 2019

Among great powers, AI has become a new focus of competition due to its potential to transform the character of conflict and disrupt the military balance. This policy brief considers alternative paths toward AI safety and security.

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“There is a level of hype and exuberance in conversations about artificial intelligence, particularly in China and the United States today, that may be exaggerated relative to the actual capabilities and limitations of AI today,” said CSET’s Elsa Kania.

Jason Matheny, Founding Director at CSET, spoke to NextGov about the importance of developing standards and creating frameworks for evaluating AI. “NIST and other organizations … have historically played an important role in being that testbed. We need to do the same thing for AI,” he said.

Andrew Imbrie, Senior Fellow at CSET writes that “the integration of new technologies depends on something more fundamental: bureaucratic politics.” He looks at the ways in which bureaucratic politics will impact the U.S.’s adoption of AI, and what the challenges and enablers of adoptions of AI implementation may look like in China.