Worth Knowing
Claude 3, OpenAI’s Sora, Google Gemini, and Mistral — A Roundup: It’s been a month filled with maneuvers in the world of generative AI, with developers debuting new capabilities, leveling the playing field, teaming up with the competition, and apologizing for mistakes:
- Anthropic released a suite of large language models — collectively dubbed Claude 3 — including its most powerful yet: Claude 3 Opus. According to Anthropic’s internal testing, Opus outperformed OpenAI’s GPT-4 across a range of benchmarks, though it’s not clear how it stacks up to GPT-4 Turbo, the updated model currently powering ChatGPT. Public user reactions to Opus generally put it in the same ballpark as GPT-4 and Google’s Gemini Ultra.
- OpenAI announced Sora, the company’s first foray into text-to-video generators. OpenAI is not the first company to develop an AI-powered video tool, but Sora appears to be the best thus far. Though Sora’s videos are short and not yet Hollywood-quality, the rapid improvement of earlier text-to-image generators has some in the television and movie industry worried about what video generators could do to their business. OpenAI has only shared Sora with a handful of red teamers and has yet to announce a wider release date.
- Google faced backlash after users found that its Gemini AI image generator depicted white historical figures — like the U.S. founding fathers or English monarchs — as people of color. The backlash predictably took on a political bent, but the issue appears to have been caused by a sloppy solution to a real problem: without guardrails, AI image generators will tend to produce overly homogeneous results, even when diverse results would be appropriate. Google apologized for “missing the mark” and pulled Gemini’s image-generating capability to work on a fix. The company plans to relaunch the capability soon.
- Microsoft announced an investment in the French AI company Mistral, provoking criticism from some European leaders. The tech giant’s stake in the company is small potatoes compared to its investment in OpenAI — $16 million to more than $10 billion, respectively — but not small enough to prevent backlash. During negotiations over the EU AI Act, which received final approval from the European Parliament yesterday, French officials and Mistral representatives reportedly lobbied for fewer restrictions so that European companies could remain competitive with their U.S. counterparts. Mistral’s partnership with one of those competitors stung some EU officials — “The Act almost collapsed under the guise of no rules for ‘European champions’, and now look,” MEP Kim van Sparrentak told Reuters, “European regulators have been played.”
- More: Cognition emerges from stealth to launch AI software engineer Devin | Google’s New AI Will Play Video Games With You — But Not To Win
Scientists and Researchers Call Attention to AI Risks: Two separate letters signed by prominent researchers pushed for steps that could help mitigate the potential risks associated with AI development:
- More than 300 AI researchers called on AI companies to enact policy changes that would allow for more independent research on their systems. In a public letter and an accompanying arXiv paper, the researchers pushed for AI developers to commit to “legal and technical safe harbor” to protect and encourage independent evaluation and red-teaming of their AI systems. While security experts can usually probe traditional software vulnerabilities thanks to established norms and legal safeguards, similar protections are absent for AI research. Researchers interested in exploring the risks and vulnerabilities of many of the most popular generative AI tools — like OpenAI’s ChatGPT and Google’s Gemini — risk running afoul of developers’ policies, resulting in account suspension or even legal action. While many AI developers perform extensive testing in-house, the lack of external oversight raises concerns about the impartiality of these evaluations. The letter signatories argue that greater protection for independent research is a key step to addressing the risks associated with generative AI.
- In a March 8th letter, more than 100 scientists, including Nobel laureate Frances Arnold, committed to “a new proactive risk management approach” to protein design in light of evolving AI capabilities. Current AI tools have already shown tremendous promise for protein structure prediction and design. While these rapidly advancing capabilities could be a boon for drug discovery, observers have raised concerns that the same tools could be used by nefarious actors to design and synthesize bioweapons. The March 8 letter echoes some of these concerns and its signatories pledge to balance the benefits of scientific openness with “efforts to identify and mitigate meaningful risks,” among other commitments.
- More: Can Chatbots Help You Build a Bioweapon?
Government Updates
U.S. House Launches AI Task Force: On February 20, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Democratic Leader Leader Hakeem Jeffries announced a bipartisan task force charged with proposing new standards and congressional action on AI. Composed of 24 members — 12 appointed by each party — the task force will be chaired by two of the House’s more tech-savvy members, Reps. Jay Obernolte and Ted Lieu. The task force will produce a comprehensive report that outlines “guiding principles, forward-looking recommendations and bipartisan policy proposals,” according to a press release. To date, most attention has been paid to the Senate’s AI regulation efforts — Sam Altman’s widely covered congressional testimony and Chuck Schumer’s AI Insight Forums were both Senate affairs — but no comprehensive legislation has emerged from either body. The task force’s report is expected by the end of the year.
President Biden Budget Calls for $3 Billion in AI Funding: President Biden announced his FY2025 budget request on Monday, a $7.3 trillion proposal with substantial funding proposed for AI and emerging technology. The budget request includes:
- $1.8 billion for the Pentagon’s AI efforts. While the DOD’s request for AI funding remains the same as its FY2024 request, military officials emphasized that this was in response to caps imposed by last year’s Fiscal Responsibility Act and that AI development and funding remain a top priority.
- $900 million for the Directorate for Technology, Innovation, and Partnerships, the National Science Foundation’s “crosscutting platform” for emerging and critical tech, established last year.
- $1.4 billion for National Science Foundation STEM education and workforce development programs with an emphasis on diversity, equity, inclusion, and accessibility.
- $65 million for the Commerce Department to support the new U.S. AI Safety Institute. The AISI, announced last November, is tasked with leading many of the federal government’s AI trust and safety efforts.
- $30 million for the second year of the pilot program of the National AI Research Resource, which was stood up earlier this year pursuant to the president’s AI executive order.
- $70 million for federal agencies to hire Chief AI Officers and bolster their deployment and use of AI, plus $32 million to support the AI Talent Surge.
- $223 million for the Bureau of Industry and Security, the Commerce Department agency leading the federal government’s export control efforts. The request, if enacted, would represent a 17 percent increase over the FY2024 enacted level.
In Translation
CSET’s translations of significant foreign language documents on AI
CSET’s translations of significant foreign language documents on AI
PRC CAS Budget: Chinese Academy of Sciences 2023 Budget. This document is the 2023 budget for the Chinese Academy of Sciences, a state-run complex of scientific research institutes and think tanks. CAS strives to enhance China’s overall S&T capabilities and to improve the country’s self-sufficiency in key technologies.
PRC Research Ethics Guidelines: Ethics Guidelines for Brain-Computer Interface Research. These guidelines, issued by a Chinese Communist Party commission, offer non-binding principles for ethical conduct in brain-computer interface research. The guidelines categorize BCI technology by its level of invasiveness and distinguish therapeutic BCI designed to help people with neurological disabilities from augmentative BCI that enhances the abilities of healthy people. The guidelines urge “moderation” in the adoption of BCI technology, particularly in the case of augmentative BCI, which the guidelines warn could exacerbate social inequality if adopted without restraint.
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Job Openings
We’re hiring! Please apply or share the role below with candidates in your network:
- Research Fellow – Workforce: We are currently seeking candidates to support our Workforce line of research as a Research Fellow. In this role, you will be a key player in helping us accomplish three major research tasks: updating CSET’s assessment of the U.S. AI workforce, executing an analysis of the U.S. cybersecurity workforce, and assessing the U.S. educational pipeline for AI, cybersecurity, and STEM talent. As a report to our Senior Fellow who leads this research area, you will play a key role in shaping research priorities, overseeing research strategy and its execution, and leading a talented team of researchers. If you’re passionate about technology policy and possess strong leadership skills, apply now to make a meaningful impact on the future of America’s Workforce. Apply by Monday, March 18th
- Data Research Analyst: CSET is seeking capable data storytellers, analyzers, and visualizers to be Data Research Analysts. This role serves as a bridge between the data and analysis teams. It draws on knowledge of research methods, subject-area expertise, and analytic skills. We encourage those with experience in data visualization, programming, and/or statistical analysis to apply. Apply by Monday, March 25th
What’s New at CSET
ANNUAL REPORT
In honor of CSET’s fifth birthday, our annual report — CSET at Five — is a look at CSET’s successes in 2023 and over the course of the past five years. It explores CSET’s different lines of research and cross-cutting projects, and spotlights some of its most impactful research products.REPORTS
- Which Ties Will Bind?: Big Tech, Lessons from Ukraine, and Implications for Taiwan by Sam Bresnick, Ngor Luong, and Kathleen Curlee
PUBLICATIONS AND PODCAST APPEARANCES
- PNAS Nexus: How Persuasive Is AI-Generated Propaganda? by Josh A. Goldstein, Jason Chao, Shelby Grossman, Alex Stamos, and Michael Tomz
- CSET: The Surprising Power of Next Word Prediction: Large Language Models Explained, Part 1 by Matthew Burtell and Helen Toner
- CSET: How Developers Steer Language Model Outputs: Large Language Models Explained, Part 2 by Thomas Woodside and Helen Toner
- CSET: Multimodality, Tool Use, and Autonomous Agents: Large Language Models Explained, Part 3 by Thomas Woodside and Helen Toner
- CSET: Keeping Up with the Frontier: Why Congress Should Codify Reporting Requirements For Advanced AI Systems by Thomas Woodside
- CSET: Open Foundation Models: Implications of Contemporary Artificial Intelligence by Kyle Miller
- CSET: Good News in the Progress Toward Top-Tier Research Status for HBCUs? by Jaret C. Riddick
- Lawfare: The Lawfare Podcast: Governing the Use of Autonomous Weapons and AI in Warfare featuring Lauren Kahn
- AI, Government, and the Future by Alan Pentz: Assessing Risks and Setting Effective AI Standards featuring Mina Narayanan
EMERGING TECHNOLOGY OBSERVATORY
- The Emerging Technology Observatory is now on Substack! Sign up for the latest updates and analysis.
- Profiling Research Institutions With the Map of Science, Part 3: A Tour of Europe
- Editors’ Picks from ETO Scout: Volume 8 (2/9/24-2/22/24)
EVENT RECAPS
- On February 27, CSET’s Emelia Probasco, Sam Bresnick, and Ngor Luong discussed the U.S. tech industry’s involvement in the war in Ukraine and what it means for their role in conflicts of the future.
IN THE NEWS
- Associated Press: US rivalry with China expands to biotech. Lawmakers see a failure to compete and want to act (Didi Tang quoted Anna Puglisi)
- Australian Broadcasting Company: Should we be concerned about the future of artificial intelligence? (Helen Toner appeared on 7.30 with Sarah Ferguson)
- BBC Radio: The Rise and Rise of the Microchip (Hanna Dohmen spoke to Misha Glenny)
- CNBC: Colleges are touting AI degree programs. Here’s how to decide if it’s worth the cost (Cheryl Winokur Munk cited the CSET data snapshot Leading the Charge: A Look at the Top-Producing AI Programs in U.S. Colleges and Universities)
- GZero Media: Chinese national charged with stealing Google’s trade secrets (Scott Nover quoted William Hannas)
- Interesting Engineering: US Army tests AI chatbot battle planning ability in war game simulation (Abdul-Rahman Oladimeji Bello quoted Lauren Kahn)
- New Scientist: US Army tests AI chatbots as battle planners in a war game simulation (Jeremy Hsu quoted Lauren Kahn)
- Newsweek: China’s New AI ‘Supermind’ Deepens Challenge to U.S. (Didi Kirsten Tatlow quoted William Hannas)
- Platformer: The AI-generated propaganda is working (Casey Newton cited Josh A. Goldstein’s new paper, How persuasive is AI-generated propaganda?)
- Politico: National Security Daily (Matt Berg cited the Sam Bresnick, Ngor Luong, Kathleen Curlee report, Which Ties Will Bind?)
- The Register: AI mishaps are surging – and now they’re being tracked like software bugs (Katyanna Quach quoted Heather Frase)
- The Wall Street Journal: The Nvidia Chips Inside Powerful AI Supercomputers (Asa Fitch, Eric Niiler, and Peter Champelli quoted Hanna Dohmen)
- The Wire China: Seoul’s Big Switch (Eliot Chen quoted Cole McFaul)
What We’re Reading
Report: Biennial Report to Congress on International Science & Technology Cooperation, The Subcommittee on International Science and Technology Coordination of the National Science and Technology Council (February 2024)
Paper: Towards AI Accountability Infrastructure: Gaps and Opportunities in AI Audit Tooling, Victor Ojewale, Ryan Steed, Briana Vecchione, Abeba Birhane, and Inioluwa Deborah Raji (February 2024)
Report: The State of U.S. Science and Engineering 2024, Steven Deitz and Christina Freyman, National Science Board (March 2024)
Upcoming Events
- Georgetown University, NATO at 75: Charting a New Course
What else is going on? Suggest stories, documents to translate & upcoming events here.