The Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education (CCIHE) is making changes to drastically simplify the criteria that determine its highly coveted R1 (“very high research activity”) top-tier research classification. Since 2015, Carnegie Classification analysts have used a set of calculations based upon criteria such as research expenditures, doctoral degrees conferred in science and engineering, as well as arts and humanities, and number of PhD research staff. According to The Chronicle of Higher Education, starting in 2025 the threshold for achieving R1 will be simply spending $50 million on research and development, and awarding 70 doctoral degrees in any research field—including non-STEM fields—all within a year.

Last August, I wrote about a new law from Congress, Section 223 of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act. A key strategic aim of the law is to increase defense research capacity among eligible historically Black colleges and universities. Under the current Carnegie classifications, 11 HBCUs are classified as R2 (“high research activity”), meaning they “confer at least 20 research doctorates and report at least $5 million in total research expenditures.” But no HBCU is among the nation’s 146 R1 universities. The Section 223 law authorizes the U.S. Department of Defense (DOD)  to use existing CCIHE criteria for R1 classification to develop “measurable outcomes” for eligible HBCUs and other minority institutions to show progress toward R1 status. 

The 11 R2 HBCUs are as follows: Clark Atlanta University, Atlanta, GA; Florida A&M University, Tallahassee, FL; Howard University, Washington, D.C.; Jackson State University, Jackson, MS; Morgan State University, Baltimore, MD; North Carolina A&T State University, Greensboro, NC; Prairie View A&M University, Prairie View, TX; Southern University and A&M College, Baton Rouge, LA; Tennessee State University, Nashville, TN; Texas Southern University, Houston, TX; University of Maryland – Eastern Shore, Princess Anne, MD.

Changes Coming for 2025?

In the article from The Chronicle, Carnegie classification leadership acknowledges the influence R1 classification plays in college leaders’ decisions about planning budgets, infrastructure, and academic offerings. Their hope is that simplification of the “complicated and opaque” classification method will provide stability in developing programs, strategies, and roadmaps for university leaders pursuing R1 classification. Research is needed to understand how the changes proposed for 2025 impact the current Section 223 law.

The Chronicle also points out that if the changes coming in 2025 were enacted today, at least one of the 11 HBCU R2s, Howard University in Washington, D.C., would achieve R1 status. Interestingly, Howard University held R1 status from 1987 until shifts in the Carnegie classification criteria in 2005. The obvious question: Of the remaining 10 R2 HBCUs, who’s next?

2025: One HBCU R1? Who’s Next?

CSET is currently conducting a study of historical data for R2 HBCUs, focused on yearly R&D expenditures along with yearly PhD production. The full study expected later this year will offer more in-depth analysis, however, an early look at the trends in this data offers the following clues about “who’s next”: 

• Analysis indicated that for a single institution among the 11 R2 HBCUs, yearly data for 2022 and 2021 does indeed eclipse the proposed 2025 thresholds for both R&D expenditure and PhDs awarded; confirming the assertion of the article in The Chronicle: “if the list were redone today, Howard University…would make it.”
• Analysis of the historical data indicates that the majority of the remaining R2 HBCUs would have to double either R&D expenditure, research PhDs awarded, or both to achieve and maintain R1 status.
• One clear exception exists among the remaining R2 institutions: North Carolina A&T State University (NC A&T) in Greensboro, NC. The analysis of historical data for NC A&T showed a trend ending with both 2022 R&D expenditure and PhD production within percentage points of the 2025 threshold. At the current pace, it is foreseeable that NC A&T will be the next HBCU R1 institution in the 2025-26 timeframe, or soon after. 

Takeaways

The simplified criteria for R1 designation proposed for Carnegie classification beginning in 2025 has implications for the goals of the recently enacted Section 223 law. One clear strategic goal of the law is increasing the defense research capacity of eligible HBCUs by encouraging them to achieve top-tier Carnegie research classification. More research is needed now in order for the DOD, Congress, and HBCU leadership to validate requirements to achieve this key strategic goal of the law, but under the new criteria for 2025. 

The preliminary observations highlighted here indicate that under the criteria proposed for 2025, pathways to R1 status can be imagined for R2 HBCUs that fit certain profiles in the available historical data. A more comprehensive research effort is underway at CSET to examine this data. This research will detail the challenges, strategies, and incentives among eligible institutions to achieve and sustain R1 status under the new criteria proposed by Carnegie for 2025. The Section 223 law gives DOD motivation to partner with Congress and HBCU leadership to focus capacity building and research investment to address technology areas that are critical to future DOD capabilities. Acting now would allow efforts already underway to fulfill the intent of the law, and enhance the value of HBCU defense research capacity as a strategic asset for the DOD science and technology enterprise.