AI and the invasion of Ukraine, how an Nvidia hack could help China, tech talk in the SOTU, and the ODNI’s annual threat assessment

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Worth Knowing

AI and the Russian Invasion of Ukraine: Two weeks have passed since Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, and AI has seemingly played only a minor role so far — primarily in helping generate disinformation. Facebook and Twitter uncovered and removed “covert influence operations” that used AI-generated profile images to push pro-Russian sentiments across multiple platforms. The Ukrainian military, meanwhile, has made use of Turkish-made Bayraktar TB2 drones (though the extent of their use is unclear) that have some autonomous capabilities. But like the Turkish Kargu-2 drones we covered last year, the TB2’s autonomous capabilities should not be overstated — loitering munitions are “autonomous” but far from new. While Russia’s military AI capabilities lag behind those of the United States and China, military AI technology, outside of certain information processing and decision support functionalities, is still largely in experimental stages. We’ve covered military uses of AI in previous editions of policy.ai but, in each case, open source accounts generally lagged well behind the systems’ usages. We’ll highlight the use of military AI in Ukraine if it occurs, but expect that reporting will take weeks, months or years to emerge.
Meta’s New System Cards: Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, introduced “system cards” that aim to explain to non-experts how its AI systems work. As AI models — like those that power Facebook’s Feed — have become a bigger part of everyday life, researchers, advocates and policymakers have called on developers to improve the “explainability” (also called “interpretability”) of their AI systems. China’s new algorithm laws, which went into effect on March 1, and the EU’s General Data Protection Regulation both include algorithm explanation requirements. But generating explanations for complex AI systems — many of which are inscrutable even to their developers — is easier said than done. AI developers have experimented with a number of solutions, including Google’s “model cards,” which explain key facts about individual models. Meta’s new system cards, designed by the company’s “Responsible AI team,” perform a similar task for systems made up of multiple models working in concert. The pilot project card — which explains the Instagram Feed’s ranking system — walks users through the system’s purpose, components and scoring process.  
Major Nvidia Hack Could Help China: Last week, Nvidia confirmed that hackers stole proprietary information and employee credentials in a late February cyberattack. A ransomware gang called “Lapsus$” claimed responsibility for the attack and said it had gained access to passwords, schematics, drivers, firmware and more. The group leaked some of the stolen data and threatened to release the rest unless Nvidia accedes to its demands, which include removing cryptocurrency mining limiters on its gaming cards and making its GPU drivers open source. There is no evidence that Lapsus$ is state-affiliated or that the attack was related to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, but the hack could still pose a major problem for the Santa Clara-based firm. Nvidia is a “fabless” chip company (it doesn’t manufacture its own chips), meaning its value comes from its chip designs and the proprietary tools it uses to create them. As semiconductor analyst Dylan Patel pointed out, these tools — which the hackers appear to have gained access to — could help Chinese AI and GPU firms catch up to their U.S. competitors and design state-of-the-art chips of their own.  
Government Updates

Biden Administration Limits Russia’s Access to Critical Technologies: In response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United States imposed a series of export controls designed to significantly limit its access to critical technologies. The restrictions, announced by the Commerce Department (fact sheet available here), limit Russian and Belarussian access to sensitive technologies, including semiconductors, produced in the United States or in other countries using any U.S.-produced software, technology or equipment. According to the White House, the restrictions, together with coordinated restrictions imposed by U.S. allies and partners, will cut off half of Russia’s high-tech imports. Some of the restrictions’ effects were felt quickly — companies such as Intel, AMD, and Nvidia pulled out of the Russian and Belarussian markets, while major cloud computing providers Microsoft and Amazon Web Services blocked new customers in Russia (though Ukrainian officials have called on both companies to cut off existing clients as well). Other effects are likely to take longer to manifest — as experts (including CSET’s Margarita Konaev) told Politico, the sanctions and restrictions on Russia could spark a brain drain as resources, finances and firms disappear.      

Biden Urges Passage of Tech Bill in State of the Union: In his State of the Union address last week, President Biden emphasized the importance of domestic semiconductor manufacturing and urged Congress to pass the tech competitiveness bill currently being negotiated by the House and Senate. Biden touted Intel’s planned “mega site” in Ohio — a $20 billion investment in at least two new chip fabrication facilities outside of Columbus. Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger, who was in attendance as a guest of First Lady Jill Biden, has said the Ohio site could grow to a $100 billion investment across as many as eight fabs if Congress approves $52 billion in chipmaking incentives, which would likely be included in a final compromise bill. Both the Senate’s U.S. Innovation and Competition Act and the House’s America COMPETES Act include those incentives. While the House passed its bill last month, and the Senate passed its version last June, reports indicate conferencing between the chambers has been delayed by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the upcoming Supreme Court confirmation process, and some clerical issues.      

Intelligence Community Releases Annual Threat Assessment: The Office of the Director of National Intelligence released its annual threat assessment report earlier this week. The report, which details the biggest threats to national security as identified by the U.S. intelligence community, mentions several threats related to AI and other emerging technologies:
  • It cites the “global diffusion of emerging technologies, shrinking timelines for development and maturation of technologies, and increasingly blurred lines between commercial and military endeavors” in fields including AI, robotics and automation as potentially destabilizing transnational threats.
  • While it says that the operationalization of military AI will likely remain out of reach for all but the largest and richest states, the report mentions the rapid proliferation of low-cost technologies — such as unmanned aerial and naval vehicles and cyber tools — as a disruptive force with the potential for “high impact and even strategic-level effects.”
  • In its section on China, the report warns that “China will remain the top threat to U.S. technological competitiveness” and reiterates concerns that Chinese control over Taiwan would disrupt the global semiconductor supply chain. The report specifically emphasized China’s growing space and counter-space capabilities.
House-Passed $1.5 Trillion Bill Includes S&T Funding: On Wednesday night, the House of Representatives passed a $1.5 trillion spending bill that would fund the government through the rest of fiscal year 2022. The bill boosts funding beyond FY2021 levels in several areas relevant to S&T policy, including:
Current government funding expires at the end of this Friday. While observers expect the spending agreement to pass both chambers, procedural issues are expected to prevent final passage before the end-of-week deadline, so the Senate will likely approve a temporary stop-gap measure that the House also passed last night to avoid any lapse in funding.

In Translation
CSET’s translations of significant foreign language documents on AI

Made in China 2025: Notice of the State Council on the Publication of “Made in China 2025.” Made in China 2025, one of China’s most important industrial policies, sets milestones for China to reach by 2020 and 2025 in service of its goal of upgrading the PRC manufacturing sector. The Made in China 2025 strategy aims both to increase the competitiveness and global market share of the Chinese manufacturing industry and to reduce China’s dependence on foreign manufactured goods.

If you have a foreign-language document related to security and emerging technologies that you’d like translated into English, CSET may be able to help! Click here for details.

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What’s New at CSET

REPORTSPUBLICATIONS AND BOOKSIN THE NEWS
What We’re Reading

Report: Securing Defense-Critical Supply Chains: An action plan developed in response to President Biden’s Executive Order 14017, U.S. Department of Defense (February 2022)

Report: China’s Digital Ambitions: A Global Strategy to Supplant the Liberal Order, The National Bureau of Asian Research (March 2022) 

Report: Artificial Intelligence: Status of Developing and Acquiring Capabilities for Weapon Systems, U.S. Government Accountability Office (February 2022)

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