Nvidia prepares to ditch its deal for Arm, Intel goes on a spending spree, and the U.S. House unveils a tech competitiveness bill

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Worth Knowing

Beijing Releases Five-Year Plan for Chinese Digital Ecosystem: In December, the Chinese government released the 14th Five-Year Plan for National Informatization, which lays out Beijing’s goals for its digital ecosystem during the 2021–2025 period. The plan (a translation of which Stanford’s DigiChina Project released earlier this week) recaps progress made during the period of the 13th five-year plan — touting 70 percent internet penetration rates and the growth of the country’s digital economy industries, which accounted for nearly 8 percent of China’s GDP in 2020 — and outlines key priorities, policy areas and actions for the current five-year period. As DigiChina’s accompanying analysis notes, the plan indicates Beijing’s shifting priorities: having built up a financially successful digital ecosystem, China plans to move away from the “free-for-all” growth model in favor of more constrained approaches that serve Beijing’s increasingly emphasized goal of “common prosperity.” 
Nvidia Prepares to Ditch Deal for Arm: Nvidia is reportedly making plans to back away from its $40 billion takeover of British chipmaker Arm. The deal had faced significant pushback from regulators in the United States, EU and UK, who raised concerns that it would jeopardize Arm’s status as “the Switzerland of chips” — Arm acts as a neutral licenser of chip designs to more than 500 companies worldwide, many of them Nvidia’s biggest competitors. Originally reached in 2020, the deal was part of Nvidia’s effort to enter the CPU market, where Arm is an industry leader, and could have helped the company more closely integrate the chips powering its AI systems. While the transaction is still under consideration, Bloomberg reports Nvidia has told its partners that it does not expect the deal to close and that SoftBank, Arm’s current owner, is preparing for an IPO should the Nvidia purchase fall through.
Intel Plans to Spend $20+ Billion on Ohio Fabs: Last week, Intel announced plans to spend at least $20 billion building new semiconductor fabrication facilities in Ohio. The initial plan calls for two new fabs, but the investment could grow to as much as $100 billion and 8 fabs, according to Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger. Construction on the first two facilities is expected to begin later this year, with the first chips set to come off the line in 2025. An Intel representative confirmed the Ohio fabs are meant to handle the company’s most advanced process nodes. The Ohio fabs are the latest in a series of major investments by the Santa Clara-based company — since Gelsinger took over as CEO early last year, Intel has poured $20 billion into two new Arizona fabs (set to come online in 2024) and indicated plans to spend another $100 billion on two new factories in Europe. Gelsinger confirmed to Reuters that the European plans are still on the table, but said an announcement would come after the EU moves forward with the European Chips Act, a semiconductor manufacturing bill reportedly set to be introduced by the European Commission next month.
Government Updates

White House Makes Changes to Visa Rules for STEM Workers: Last week, the Biden administration announced changes to immigration policy that will make it easier for foreign students in STEM fields to remain in the United States after graduation. The Department of Homeland Security will add 22 new fields of study to the STEM Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which allows international students to work in the United States for up to three years after graduation. The newly added fields — which a White House fact sheet described as “new multidisciplinary or emerging fields” — include human-centered technology design, cloud computing, data visualization, and quantitative methods. Hundreds of thousands of foreign students take part in OPT every year, making it a key element of the U.S. AI talent pipeline. In the announcement, the White House also issued eligibility clarifications for the O-1A visas for individuals with “extraordinary abilities” in STEM fields. While the Biden administration’s moves were generally well received, observers noted that anything beyond these “small but significant” changes — such as codifying the OPT program in statute or expanding the availability of green cards — will require congressional action.

House Leaders Unveil Tech Competitiveness Bill: On Tuesday, House leaders introduced a major tech competitiveness bill that would direct billions of dollars to domestic semiconductor production and critical supply chains. The 2,912-page bill, dubbed the “America COMPETES Act,” (summary available here) would:
  • Provide $52 billion in incentives for domestic semiconductor manufacturing and research and development.
  • Authorize $45 billion in grants, loans, and loan guarantees for supply chain resilience and the manufacturing of “critical goods, industrial equipment, and manufacturing technology.”
  • Create a new office within the Department of Commerce charged with identifying supply chain vulnerabilities and coordinating with stakeholders to mitigate them.  
  • Establish a new directorate within the National Science Foundation focused on advancing research in priority technology areas. This proposal was originally part of the NSF for the Future Act, which the House passed last year and which the America COMPETES Act incorporates.
  • Amend the Immigration and Nationality Act to create a new class of “Start-up Visas” for entrepreneurs, start-up employees and their families.
The Senate passed a tech competitiveness bill, the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act, last June, but the House pursued its own legislation, and progress on a negotiated bill has languished since. The new measure appears to have reinvigorated President Biden’s hopes that a tech competitiveness bill will eventually land on his desk, and while House Democrats are pushing to expedite the bill’s passage, reports indicate that securing enough votes could be an uphill battle.

Biden Signs Memo on Cybersecurity for DOD and Intelligence Agencies: President Biden signed a national security memorandum that aims to improve the cybersecurity of the systems used by the Pentagon and U.S. intelligence agencies. Last May, the White House issued an executive order outlining new cybersecurity requirements for federal agencies and government contractors, including data encryption and multi-factor authentication mandates. The new memo sets timelines and gives specific guidance for certain “National Security Systems” — namely those used by the DOD and intelligence agencies — to meet those requirements. The memo also:
In Translation
CSET’s translations of significant foreign language documents on AI

PRC 14th Five-Year Plan for National Standards System: “14th Five-Year” Plan for Promoting the High-Quality Development of the National Standards System. This document describes China’s overall plan for the development of its national standards system through 2025. It expands upon the guidelines the Communist Party laid out in the October 2021 National Standardization Development Outline and provides more detail about the specific technologies for which China is creating national standards.

PRC Tech Conference Recap: 2022 Nationwide S&T Work Conference Convened in Beijing. This article summarizes China’s 2022 Nationwide S&T Work Conference, which reviewed China’s progress toward its technological goals during 2021 and set new priorities for 2022. The conference also served to indoctrinate members of the PRC S&T bureaucracy in Xi Jinping’s latest political pronouncements.

If you have a foreign-language document related to security and emerging technologies that you’d like translated into English, CSET may be able to help! Click here for details.

Job Openings and New Funding

We’re starting the year with a fresh infusion of support in the form of a $2 million unrestricted gift from the Musk Foundation. This funding will support initiatives across CSET.

And we have more exciting news — we’re hiring! Please apply or share the roles below with candidates in your network:
  • Research Analyst (multiple): CSET RAs are vital to our work across a range of lines of research. Research Analysts collaborate with Research and Senior Fellows to execute CSET’s research. Apply by February 25 and be sure to list your areas of research interest in your cover letter.  
  • Data Research Analyst (multiple): DRAs work alongside our analysis and data teams to produce data-driven research products and policy analysis. This role combines knowledge of research methods and data analysis skills. Those with experience in common data visualization, programming languages, and/or statistical analysis tools may find this position of particular interest. Apply by February 25.  
  • AI Research Subgrant (AIRS) Program Director: CSET’s AIRS Program Director will manage sourcing, distributing and monitoring research grants that seek to promote the exploration of foundational technical topics that relate to potential national security implications of AI over the long term. Closes on January 31.  
  • Business Operations and Management Specialist: Reporting to CSET’s Director of Operations, the management specialist will have responsibility for AIRS pre-award grant processing, contracts management and grants management for the entirety of CSET.  Excel/gsheets skills are a must. Apply by 4 March 2022.
  • Emerging Tech Observatory Analytic Lead: The ETO aims to provide high-quality data on emerging technology to a range of audiences in a useful, accessible way. The Analytic Lead will be responsible for developing the Observatory’s analytic goals, communicating project work, engaging with project stakeholders, supporting product development, supervising project personnel, and developing project strategy. Apply by 21 February 2022
Please bookmark our careers page to stay up to date on all active job postings.

What’s New at CSET

REPORTSPUBLICATIONSEMERGING TECHNOLOGY OBSERVATORY
  • CSET is launching its Emerging Technology Observatory (ETO), a new effort led by our data team. The goal of the ETO is to build tools and datasets that make it easier for a range of user communities to understand and track global trends in research and innovation. Leveraging CSET’s unique data holdings and infrastructure, the ETO will inform decision-making in areas such as tech forecasting and horizon scanning, strategic planning and funding prioritization, research security, workforce development, risk management and more.  
FORECASTS
Foretell has launched a new project that combines expert and crowd judgment. You can read more about the experts’ views, including how they think trends like China’s military aggression, political polarization, and the strength of the tech sector affect the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship. See all 20 forecast questions associated with this project here.

EVENT RECAPS
  • On January 20, CSET’s webinar Strengthening the Technical Foundations of U.S. Security featured a conversation between CSET Senior Fellow Andrew Lohn, Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (HAI) Director of Policy Russell Wald and Stanford HAI Postdoctoral Fellow Jeffrey Ding about how a National Research Cloud will impact U.S. national security.
IN THE NEWS
What We’re Reading

Article: Online public discourse on artificial intelligence and ethics in China: context, content, and implications, Yishu Mao and Kristin Shi-Kupfer, AI & Society (November 2021)

Report: Feeling the Burden: Ethical Challenges and Practices in Open Source Analysis and Journalism, Benjamin Loehrke, Luisa Kenausis, Aida al-Kaisy, Devon Terrill and Kelly Smits, Stanley Center for Peace and Security (January 2022)

Report: Dimensions of Autonomous Decision-making, Michael F. Stumborg, Becky Roh and Mark Rosen, CNA (December 2021)

Upcoming Events


What else is going on? Suggest stories, documents to translate & upcoming events here.