Compete

ChinaTalk: Export Controls for AI

Lawfare
| November 8, 2022

Emily Weinstein and Tim Hwang discuss decoupling from China in AI.

Banned in D.C.

Jack Corrigan, Sergio Fontanez, and Michael Kratsios
| October 2022

U.S. federal policymakers have recently gained the authority to block government agencies and private organizations from using foreign technologies that pose national security risks. But securing U.S. networks will require them to wield those powers effectively and better coordinate supply chain security efforts across all levels of government. The authors provide an overview of federal- and state-level procurement bans and recommend ways to build stronger defense against foreign technology threats.

Decoupling in Strategic Technologies

Tim Hwang and Emily S. Weinstein
| July 2022

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China have sparked an ongoing dialogue in Washington about the phenomenon of “decoupling”—the use of public policy tools to separate the multifaceted economic ties that connect the two powers. This issue brief provides a historical lens on the efficacy of one specific aspect of this broader decoupling phenomenon: using export controls and related trade policies to prevent a rival from acquiring the equipment and know-how to catch up to the United States in cutting-edge, strategically important technologies.

Chokepoints

Ben Murphy
| May 2022

China’s "Science and Technology Daily," a state-run newspaper, published a revealing series of articles in 2018 on 35 different Chinese technological import dependencies. The articles, accessible here in English for the first time, express concern that strategic Chinese industries are vulnerable to any disruption to their supply of specific U.S., Japanese, and European “chokepoint” technologies. This issue brief summarizes the article series and analyzes the Chinese perspective on these import dependencies and their causes.

This data brief explores how international collaboration relates to the impact and output of research publications. Focusing on the top 10 countries with the highest publication output from 2010 to 2019, the authors provide a comprehensive analysis across the major fields of science and technology.

Mapping the AI Investment Activities of Top Global Defense Companies

Ngor Luong, Rebecca Gelles, and Melissa Flagg
| October 2021

Militaries around the world have often relied on the largest global defense companies to acquire and integrate cutting-edge technologies. This issue brief examines the investment and mergers and acquisition activities in artificial intelligence of the top 50 global defense companies — a key, if limited, approach to accessing AI innovation in the commercial sector — and assesses investment trends of their corporate venture capital subsidiaries and offers a geographic breakdown of defense companies and their AI target companies.

From Cold War Sanctions to Weaponized Interdependence

Adam Kline and Tim Hwang
| September 2021

As U.S. policymakers grapple with the need to control international technology flows, this annotated bibliography distills key lessons and surveys 50 years of scholarship, government documents, and commentary. The resources it presents are at the intersection of international economics and technology and span from the Cold War to the current challenges surrounding U.S.-China relations.

Small Data’s Big AI Potential

Husanjot Chahal, Helen Toner, and Ilya Rahkovsky
| September 2021

Conventional wisdom suggests that cutting-edge artificial intelligence is dependent on large volumes of data. An overemphasis on “big data” ignores the existence—and underestimates the potential—of several AI approaches that do not require massive labeled datasets. This issue brief is a primer on “small data” approaches to AI. It presents exploratory findings on the current and projected progress in scientific research across these approaches, which country leads, and the major sources of funding for this research.

Ending Innovation Tourism

Melissa Flagg and Jack Corrigan
| July 2021

As dual-use technologies transform the national security landscape, the U.S. Department of Defense has established a variety of offices and programs dedicated to bringing private sector innovation into the military. However, these efforts have largely failed to drive cutting-edge commercial technology into major military platforms and systems. This report examines the shortcomings of the DOD’s current approach to defense innovation and offers recommendations for a more effective strategy.

The Huawei Moment

Alex Rubin, Alan Omar Loera Martinez, Jake Dow, and Anna Puglisi
| July 2021

For the first time, a Chinese company—Huawei—is set to lead the global transition from one key national security infrastructure technology to the next. How did Washington, at the beginning of the twenty-first century, fail to protect U.S. firms in this strategic technology and allow a geopolitical competitor to take a leadership position in a national security relevant critical infrastructure such as telecommunications? This policy brief highlights the characteristics of 5G development that China leveraged, exploited, and supported to take the lead in this key technology. The Huawei case study is in some ways the canary in the coal mine for emerging technologies and an illustration of what can happen to U.S. competitiveness when China’s companies do not have to base decisions on market forces.