Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

CSET’s 2024 Annual Report

Center for Security and Emerging Technology
| March 2025

In 2024, CSET continued to deliver impactful, data-driven analysis at the intersection of emerging technology and security policy. Explore our annual report to discover key research highlights, expert testimony, and new analytical tools — all aimed at shaping informed, strategic decisions around AI and emerging tech.

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Reports

China’s National Cybersecurity Center

Dakota Cary
| July 2021

China’s National Cybersecurity Center (NCC) resides on a 40 km2 plot in Wuhan. As one indication of its significance, the Chinese Communist Party’s highest-ranking members have an oversight committee for the facility. Over the next decade, the NCC will provide the talent, innovation, and indigenization of cyber capabilities that China’s Ministry of State Security, Ministry of Public Security, and People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force hacking teams lack. Though still under construction, the NCC’s first class of graduates will cross the stage in June 2022.

Using CSET’s new Map of Science to examine clusters of research publications, this data brief presents a comparative analysis of U.S. and Chinese research publication outputs. The authors find that global competition outcomes differ depending on the level of granularity when comparing research publication data. In a granular view of global scientific research, the United States and China together dominate almost two-thirds of the research publication output, with the rest of the world leading in more than one-third of publication output. In a general view of global scientific research, only China and the United States appear as leaders in research output.

Reports

China’s Foreign Technology Wish List

Ryan Fedasiuk, Emily S. Weinstein, and Anna Puglisi
| May 2021

“Science and technology diplomats” act as brokers as part of China’s broader strategy to acquire foreign technology. Each year, they file hundreds of official reports on their activities. This issue brief illuminates trends in the 642 reports filed by the S&T directorates of Chinese embassies and consulates from 2015 to 2020, quantifying which types of technologies the Chinese government is most focused on acquiring, and from where.

Reports

Truth, Lies, and Automation

Ben Buchanan, Andrew Lohn, Micah Musser, and Katerina Sedova
| May 2021

Growing popular and industry interest in high-performing natural language generation models has led to concerns that such models could be used to generate automated disinformation at scale. This report examines the capabilities of GPT-3--a cutting-edge AI system that writes text--to analyze its potential misuse for disinformation. A model like GPT-3 may be able to help disinformation actors substantially reduce the work necessary to write disinformation while expanding its reach and potentially also its effectiveness.

Data Brief

China’s Artificial Intelligence Industry Alliance

Ngor Luong and Zachary Arnold
| May 2021

As part of its strategy to achieve global leadership in AI, the Chinese government brings together local governments, academic institutions, and companies to establish collaboration platforms. This data brief examines the role of China’s Artificial Intelligence Industry Alliance in advancing its AI strategy, and the key players in the Chinese AI industry.

Data Brief

The Public AI Research Portfolio of China’s Security Forces

Dewey Murdick, Daniel Chou, Ryan Fedasiuk, and Emily S. Weinstein
| March 2021

New analytic tools are used in this data brief to explore the public artificial intelligence (AI) research portfolio of China’s security forces. The methods contextualize Chinese-language scholarly papers that claim a direct working affiliation with components of the Ministry of Public Security, People's Armed Police Force, and People’s Liberation Army. The authors review potential uses of computer vision, robotics, natural language processing and general AI research.

Reports

Chinese Government Guidance Funds

Ngor Luong, Zachary Arnold, and Ben Murphy
| March 2021

The Chinese government is pouring money into public-private investment funds, known as guidance funds, to advance China’s strategic and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence. These funds are mobilizing massive amounts of capital from public and private sources—prompting both concern and skepticism among outside observers. This overview presents essential findings from our full-length report on these funds, analyzing the guidance fund model, its intended benefits and weaknesses, and its long-term prospects for success.

Reports

Understanding Chinese Government Guidance Funds

Ngor Luong, Zachary Arnold, and Ben Murphy
| March 2021

China’s government is using public-private investment funds, known as guidance funds, to deploy massive amounts of capital in support of strategic and emerging technologies, including artificial intelligence. Drawing exclusively on Chinese-language sources, this report explores how guidance funds raise and deploy capital, manage their investment, and interact with public and private actors. The guidance fund model is no silver bullet, but it has many advantages over traditional industrial policy mechanisms.

Data Brief

Using Machine Learning to Fill Gaps in Chinese AI Market Data

Zachary Arnold, Joanne Boisson, Lorenzo Bongiovanni, Daniel Chou, Carrie Peelman, and Ilya Rahkovsky
| February 2021

In this proof-of-concept project, CSET and Amplyfi Ltd. used machine learning models and Chinese-language web data to identify Chinese companies active in artificial intelligence. Most of these companies were not labeled or described as AI-related in two high-quality commercial datasets. The authors' findings show that using structured data alone—even from the best providers—will yield an incomplete picture of the Chinese AI landscape.

Reports

China’s STI Operations

William Hannas and Huey-Meei Chang
| January 2021

Open source intelligence (OSINT) and science and technology intelligence (STI) are realized differently in the United States and China, China putting greater value on both. In the United States’ understanding, OSINT “enables” classified reporting, while in China it is the intelligence of first resort. This contrast extends to STI which has a lower priority in the U.S. system, whereas China and its top leaders personally lavish great attention on STI and rely on it for national decisions. Establishing a “National S&T Analysis Center” within the U.S. government could help to address these challenges.