Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Analysis

AI Safety and Automation Bias

Lauren Kahn, Emelia Probasco, and Ronnie Kinoshita
| November 2024

Automation bias is a critical issue for artificial intelligence deployment. It can cause otherwise knowledgeable users to make crucial and even obvious errors. Organizational, technical, and educational leaders can mitigate these biases through training, design, and processes. This paper explores automation bias and ways to mitigate it through three case studies: Tesla’s autopilot incidents, aviation incidents at Boeing and Airbus, and Army and Navy air defense incidents.

Applications


Workforce


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Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. This five-part series uses data from the U.S. Department of Education and other select sources to complement existing CSET work on the U.S. AI workforce.

Analysis

A Shot of Resilience

Steph Batalis and Anna Puglisi
| May 2023

Vaccines keep the U.S. public healthy while safeguarding economic stability and biosecurity. This report assesses the domestic vaccine manufacturing landscape and identifies two major vulnerabilities: a reliance on foreign manufacturers and a lack of manufacturing redundancy. Maintaining a resilient vaccine supply will require the U.S. government to take steps to protect the existing supply, identify and monitor manufacturing vulnerabilities, and create a stronger domestic production base.

Data Visualization

ETO Research Almanac

Zachary Arnold, Jennifer Melot, Dewey Murdick, and Brian Love
| May 19, 2023

ETO’s Research Almanac provides high-level data on key trends in emerging technology research, including overall research output, growth, and trends among countries, research institutions, and companies active in R&D. This initial version of the Almanac focuses on topics and applications in artificial intelligence.

Analysis

Spotlight on Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence

Huey-Meei Chang and William Hannas
| May 2023

In late 2020, China established the Beijing Institute for General Artificial Intelligence, a state-backed institution dedicated to building software that emulates or surpasses human cognition in many or all of its aspects. Open source materials now available provide insight into BIGAI’s goals, scope, organization, methodology, and staffing. The project formalizes a trend evident in Chinese AI development toward broadly capable (general) AI.

Analysis

Financing “The New Oil”

Anthony Ferrara and Sara Abdulla
| May 2023

Israel has by far the largest AI ecosystem in the Middle East as measured in AI companies and financial investments, and foreign investors play a critical role in Israel’s AI market growth. This issue brief finds that AI investments in Israel have mostly originated from the United States. To date, Chinese investors have played a limited role in funding Israel’s dynamic AI companies. But understanding the risk of Chinese investments into the Israeli AI ecosystem will be important for the national security of both the United States and Israel.

Read our original translation of a significant Party and government reorganization plan that China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, passed in March 2023.

Analysis

Volunteer Force

Christine H. Fox and Emelia Probasco
| May 2023

U.S. tech companies have played a critical role in the international effort to support and defend Ukraine against Russia. To better understand and envision how these companies can help U.S. strategic interests, CSET convened a group of industry experts and former government leaders to discuss lessons learned from the ongoing war in Ukraine and what those lessons might mean for the future. The workshop’s discussion and this accompanying report expand on the themes explored in the October 2022 "Foreign Affairs" article, "Big Tech Goes to War."

Data Brief

“The Main Resource is the Human”

Micah Musser, Rebecca Gelles, Ronnie Kinoshita, Catherine Aiken, and Andrew Lohn
| April 2023

Progress in artificial intelligence (AI) depends on talented researchers, well-designed algorithms, quality datasets, and powerful hardware. The relative importance of these factors is often debated, with many recent “notable” models requiring massive expenditures of advanced hardware. But how important is computational power for AI progress in general? This data brief explores the results of a survey of more than 400 AI researchers to evaluate the importance and distribution of computational needs.

Data Snapshots are informative descriptions and quick analyses that dig into CSET’s unique data resources. This five-part series uses data from the U.S. Department of Education and other select sources to complement existing CSET work on the U.S. AI workforce.

Analysis

Viral Families and Disease X: A Framework for U.S. Pandemic Preparedness Policy

Caroline Schuerger, Steph Batalis, Katherine Quinn, Amesh Adalja, and Anna Puglisi
| April 2023

Pandemic threats are increasing as globalization, urbanization, and encroachment on animal habitats cause infectious outbreaks to become more frequent and severe. It is imperative that the United States build a pipeline of medical countermeasure development, beginning with basic scientific research and culminating in approved therapies. This report assesses preparedness for families of viral pathogens of pandemic potential and offers recommendations for steps the U.S. government can take to prepare for future pandemics.