Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Analysis

Assessing China’s AI Workforce

Dahlia Peterson Ngor Luong Jacob Feldgoise
| November 2023

Demand for talent is one of the core elements of technological competition between the United States and China. In this issue brief, we explore demand signals in China’s domestic AI workforce in two ways: geographically and within the defense and surveillance sectors. Our exploration of job postings from Spring 2021 finds that more than three-quarters of all AI job postings are concentrated in just three regions: the Yangtze River Delta region, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei area.

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Analysis

Decoding Intentions

Andrew Imbrie Owen Daniels Helen Toner
| October 2023

How can policymakers credibly reveal and assess intentions in the field of artificial intelligence? Policymakers can send credible signals of their intent by making pledges or committing to undertaking certain actions for which they will pay a price—political, reputational, or monetary—if they back down or fail to make good on their initial promise or threat. Talk is cheap, but inadvertent escalation is costly to all sides.

Analysis

The Inigo Montoya Problem for Trustworthy AI (International Version)

Emelia Probasco Kathleen Curlee
| October 2023

Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States emphasize principles of accountability, explainability, fairness, privacy, security, and transparency in their high-level AI policy documents. But while the words are the same, these countries define each of these principles in slightly different ways that could have large impacts on interoperability and the formulation of international norms. This creates, what we call the “Inigo Montoya problem” in trustworthy AI, inspired by "The Princess Bride" movie quote: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Data Brief

Assessing South Korea’s AI Ecosystem

Cole McFaul Husanjot Chahal Rebecca Gelles Margarita Konaev
| August 2023

This data brief examines South Korea’s progress in its development of artificial intelligence. The authors find that the country excels in semiconductor manufacturing, is a global leader in the production of AI patents, and is an important contributor to AI research. At the same time, the AI investment ecosystem remains nascent and despite having a highly developed AI workforce, the demand for AI talent may soon outpace supply.

Analysis

Financing “The New Oil”

Anthony Ferrara Sara Abdulla
| May 2023

Israel has by far the largest AI ecosystem in the Middle East as measured in AI companies and financial investments, and foreign investors play a critical role in Israel’s AI market growth. This issue brief finds that AI investments in Israel have mostly originated from the United States. To date, Chinese investors have played a limited role in funding Israel’s dynamic AI companies. But understanding the risk of Chinese investments into the Israeli AI ecosystem will be important for the national security of both the United States and Israel.

Analysis

Chinese AI Investment and Commercial Activity in Southeast Asia

Ngor Luong Channing Lee Margarita Konaev
| February 2023

China’s government has pushed the country’s technology and financial firms to expand abroad, and Southeast Asia’s growing economies — and AI companies — offer promising opportunities. This report examines the scope and nature of Chinese investment in the region. It finds that China currently plays a limited role in Southeast Asia’s emerging AI markets outside of Singapore and that Chinese investment activity still trails behind that of the United States. Nevertheless, Chinese tech companies, with support from the Chinese government, have established a broad range of other AI-related linkages with public and commercial actors across Southeast Asia.

Analysis

Quad AI

Husanjot Chahal Ngor Luong Sara Abdulla Margarita Konaev
| May 2022

Through the Quad forum, the United States, Australia, Japan and India have committed to pursuing an open, accessible and secure technology ecosystem and offering a democratic alternative to China’s techno-authoritarian model. This report assesses artificial intelligence collaboration across the Quad and finds that while Australia, Japan and India each have close AI-related research and investment ties to both the United States and China, they collaborate far less with one another.

Data Brief

Research Impact, Research Output, and the Role of International Collaboration

Autumn Toney Melissa Flagg
| November 2021

This data brief explores how international collaboration relates to the impact and output of research publications. Focusing on the top 10 countries with the highest publication output from 2010 to 2019, the authors provide a comprehensive analysis across the major fields of science and technology.

Analysis

Headline or Trend Line?

Margarita Konaev Andrew Imbrie Ryan Fedasiuk Emily S. Weinstein Katerina Sedova James Dunham
| August 2021

Chinese and Russian government officials are keen to publicize their countries’ strategic partnership in emerging technologies, particularly artificial intelligence. This report evaluates the scope of cooperation between China and Russia as well as relative trends over time in two key metrics of AI development: research publications and investment. The findings expose gaps between aspirations and reality, bringing greater accuracy and nuance to current assessments of Sino-Russian tech cooperation.

Analysis

Responsible and Ethical Military AI

Zoe Stanley-Lockman
| August 2021

Allies of the United States have begun to develop their own policy approaches to responsible military use of artificial intelligence. This issue brief looks at key allies with articulated, emerging, and nascent views on how to manage ethical risk in adopting military AI. The report compares their convergences and divergences, offering pathways for the United States, its allies, and multilateral institutions to develop common approaches to responsible AI implementation.

Analysis

Military AI Cooperation Toolbox

Zoe Stanley-Lockman
| August 2021

The Department of Defense can already begin applying its existing international science and technology agreements, global scientific networks, and role in multilateral institutions to stimulate digital defense cooperation. This issue brief frames this collection of options as a military AI cooperation toolbox, finding that the available tools offer valuable pathways to align policies, advance research, development, and testing, and to connect personnel–albeit in more structured ways in the Euro-Atlantic than in the Indo-Pacific.