Executive Summary

Remote sensing—literally, measurement at a distance—forms the basis for today’s weather predictions, informs financial markets, and serves American national security needs. The U.S. 2020 National Space Policy acknowledges its importance, recognizing “that long-term United States national security and foreign policy interests are best served by ensuring that United States industry continues to lead the rapidly maturing and highly competitive commercial space-based remote sensing market.”¹

Given the reported expansion of the remote sensing market, this paper seeks to understand the national security consequences of that expansion, and provide insights and recommendations for policymakers as they navigate this security environment. Using a commercially available dataset, we find that in recent years, the industry has indeed been rapidly expanding, with new companies founded at rates 10 times faster around 2015 compared to a decade earlier. That growth has since slowed from its peak, yet remains historically elevated. The explosive expansion of the U.S. remote sensing commercial market resulted from the confluence of four factors: technology development, especially microelectronics and imaging sensor miniaturization; the rise of cheaper space launch at scale; new funding and business models, including venture capital and data-focused companies complementing imagery-sales companies; and a stable regulatory environment. A less noticed but equally important factor is that the space data analysis market has also grown, with three-fourths of companies having been founded in 2008 or later.

Today, the convergence of those factors has allowed the United States to become the global leader in commercial remote sensing. To maintain and expand U.S. leadership in this market, this paper identifies the following gaps, challenges, and opportunities, along with recommendations for maintaining a competitive, globally preeminent domestic remote sensing market:

Gaps: Infrared and hyperspectral imagery, while more difficult to develop than more common visual-band imagery, promise new applications and capabilities that current commercial imaging services cannot provide.

Very low Earth orbit is likewise underexploited, though technically difficult. Companies are pursuing these new technologies, and orbits, but only a few are operational today. Each of these gaps represents a potential economic and security advantage not seized.

Challenges: The proliferation of satellite constellations adds to the growing number of debris pieces and increases the likelihood of collisions. This growth in debris raises operating costs and degrades benefits. While remote sensing satellites are not uniquely affected, the environment forms a backdrop for new systems. Responsible design and constellation management is critical for continued access to space.

Like the space environment, the strategic environment is shifting. Competing states who dislike the transparency provided by remote sensing satellites openly talk of targeting commercial capabilities. Governments and companies must be prepared for the possibility that those threats become actions.

Opportunities: Much like astronomy uses radio, infrared, visible-band, X-ray, and other sensors to better understand the cosmos, the commercial remote sensing market has the opportunity to lead a similar explosion in a multi-mode understanding of the Earth. The economic and security benefits of that understanding are broad; the challenge will be to make it profitable.

The paper makes five recommendations to close the gaps, confront the challenges, and embrace the opportunities presented, while leveraging market trends to continue building capability within the remote sensing industry. These recommendations help ensure American strategic advantage in the years to come:

1. The U.S. government should expand purchases of products and services from commercial remote sensing companies, while partnering with investor capital to encourage commercial remote sensing innovation.
2. The U.S. government should expand purchases from data analysis companies while partnering those companies with multi-disciplinary government test and experimentation teams to maximize the operational relevance of new data sources.
3. The U.S. government broadly, and the Department of Commerce specifically, should maintain current remote sensing regulations allowing commercial sales of world-leading imagery, but also evaluate the application of location-specific controls to protect allies, partners, and U.S. forces in conflict.
4. The U.S. government should continue basic research investments in sensing technology, and expand the technology transfer of those with commercial applications.
5. Within operational plans, the U.S. government should ensure coordinated options are developed and exercised to respond to reversible and irreversible attacks on commercial U.S. satellites.

1. Federal Register, vol. 85, no. 242, pg. 81769, https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2020-12-16/pdf/2020-27892.pdf.