Executive Summary

China has made significant investments, and apparent progress, in military AI over the past several years. Given AI and related emerging technologies could play critical roles in future wars, the U.S. national security establishment is worried about falling behind China in developing and deploying these technologies.¹ Such concerns have elicited much attention and alarm in the United States.

It is difficult, however, to develop a comprehensive understanding of where each military stands when it comes to military AI development and adoption, let alone conduct a direct comparison between the two. Moreover, often missing from existing assessments of Chinese military AI are Chinese perspectives on their own progress, or lack thereof, in developing and fielding AI-related technologies and capabilities. This report seeks to fill that analytical gap.

This paper outlines several of the key challenges Chinese defense experts argue China is facing regarding the development and deployment of AI and related emerging technologies. It draws on 59 Chinese-language journal articles published between 2020 and 2022 by People’s Liberation Army (PLA) officers or researchers, engineers in the Chinese defense industry, and academics working on AI and other emerging technologies.

Key findings include the following:

1. In keeping with the findings of previous CSET analyses, Chinese defense scholars believe that AI and other emerging technologies present China with a unique opportunity to catch up to or surpass the United States militarily.
2. Many of them are concerned, however, that the PLA remains behind the U.S. military in developing and fielding AI and related emerging technologies.
3. Chinese defense experts claim that the PLA is facing barriers to developing and deploying AI and related emerging technologies. The obstacles the experts highlight are similar to some of those with which the U.S. military also appears to be contending. For instance, the Chinese observers are concerned about the PLA’s ability to guarantee network and cyber security, maintain communications in future high-intensity conflicts, and develop trustworthy AI systems.
4. The experts also point out issues that may be especially relevant to the PLA’s ability to effectively use AI-enabled military systems. These concerns revolve around military data collection, management, and analysis, as well as the development of high-end sensors. They also appear worried about the PLA’s insufficiently robust military standards and testing and evaluation practices. These problems, as well as those mentioned in the above paragraph, may complicate China’s path toward carrying out AI-enabled systems warfare, a key operational concept that the PLA believes would help it win future wars.
5. Contrary to some U.S. discussions of China’s views of military AI, many of the Chinese experts whose arguments have been analyzed in this report voice misgivings about using insufficiently trustworthy AI systems in military contexts.² They also express concerns about the risks of outbreaks or escalations of wars, civilian deaths, and friendly force targeting by AI-enabled military systems due to insufficiently trustworthy AI. Finally, they note that untrustworthy military AI systems may be less effective in future wars.

1. Katrina Manson, “US Has Already Lost AI Fight to China, Says Ex-Pentagon Software Chief,” Financial Times, October 10, 2021, https://www.ft.com/content/f939db9a-40af-4bd1-b67d-10492535f8e0; Vera Bergengruen, “Tech Leaders Warn the U.S. Is Falling Behind China on AI,” TIME, July 18, 2023, https://time.com/6295586/military-ai-warfare-alexandr-wang/.
2. National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence, “Final Report,” 95, https://assets.foleon.com/eucentral-1/de-uploads-7e3kk3/48187/nscai_full_report_digital.04d6b124173c.pdf.