Foretell is CSET's crowd forecasting pilot project focused on technology and security policy. It connects historical and forecast data on near-term events with the big-picture questions that are most relevant to policymakers. This issue brief uses recent forecast data to illustrate Foretell’s methodology.

This brief examines how the Pentagon’s investments in autonomy and AI may affect its military capabilities and strategic interests. It proposes that DOD invest in improving its understanding of trust in human-machine teams and leverage existing AI technologies to enhance military readiness and endurance. In the long term, investments in reliable, trustworthy, and resilient AI systems are critical for ensuring sustained military, technological, and strategic advantages.

Over the last decade, Moscow has boosted funding of universities and implemented reforms in order to make Russia a global leader in AI. As part of that effort, Russian researchers have expanded their English-language publication output, a key—if imperfect—measure of the country’s innovation and impact. Between 2010 and 2018, the number of English-language publications by Russian scientists in AI-related fields increased six-fold.

Understanding AI activity in the private sector is crucial both to grasping its economic and security implications and developing appropriate policy frameworks. This data brief shows particularly robust AI activity in software publishing and manufacturing, along with a high concentration of companies in California, Massachusetts and New York.

Axios Future highlighted a series of one-pagers issued by CSET providing AI policy recommendations for the next presidential administration to consider and implement. The full piece from Axios can be found below.

The United States must adopt a new approach to R&D policy to optimize the diversity of the current system, manage the risks of system dispersion and deliver the benefits of R&D to society. This policy brief provides a new framework for understanding the U.S. R&D ecosystem and recommendations for repositioning the role of the federal government in R&D.

Collaborating with allies to shape the trajectory of artificial intelligence and protect against digital authoritarianism

CSET Founding Director Jason Matheny testified before the House Budget Committee on preparing for the potential effects of artificial intelligence on the U.S. economy. Read about VentureBeat's coverage of the hearing below.

CSET Founding Director Jason Matheny testified before the House Budget Committee for its hearing, "Machines, Artificial Intelligence, & the Workforce: Recovering and Readying Our Economy for the Future." Dr. Matheny's full testimony as prepared for delivery can be found below.

Patent data can provide insights into the most active countries, fields and organizations in artificial intelligence research. This data brief analyzes worldwide trends in AI patenting to offer metrics on inventive activity.