In a thought-provoking op-ed featured in Lawfare, CSET's Zachary Arnold and Micah Musser delve into the dynamic discourse surrounding the regulation of artificial intelligence (AI).

Large language models (LLMs) could potentially be used by malicious actors to generate disinformation at scale. But how likely is this risk, and what types of economic incentives do propagandists actually face to turn to LLMs? New analysis uploaded to arXiv and summarized here suggests that it is all but certain that a well-run human-machine team that utilized existing LLMs (even open-source ones that are not cutting edge) would save a propagandist money on content generation relative to a human-only operation.

CSET’s Micah Musser shared his insights in an op-ed published in The Diplomat. He discusses the misconception that there is an AI race between the United States and China, specifically focusing on the field of language modeling.

In an op-ed published in The Diplomat, Micah Musser discusses the concerns raised by policymakers in Washington about the disruptive potential of artificial intelligence technologies.

Progress in artificial intelligence (AI) depends on talented researchers, well-designed algorithms, quality datasets, and powerful hardware. The relative importance of these factors is often debated, with many recent “notable” models requiring massive expenditures of advanced hardware. But how important is computational power for AI progress in general? This data brief explores the results of a survey of more than 400 AI researchers to evaluate the importance and distribution of computational needs.

Artificial intelligence systems are rapidly being deployed in all sectors of the economy, yet significant research has demonstrated that these systems can be vulnerable to a wide array of attacks. How different are these problems from more common cybersecurity vulnerabilities? What legal ambiguities do they create, and how can organizations ameliorate them? This report, produced in collaboration with the Program on Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance at the Stanford Cyber Policy Center, presents the recommendations of a July 2022 workshop of experts to help answer these questions.

Machine learning advances have powered the development of new and more powerful generative language models. These systems are increasingly able to write text at near human levels. In a new report, authors at CSET, OpenAI, and the Stanford Internet Observatory explore how language models could be misused for influence operations in the future, and provide a framework for assessing potential mitigation strategies.

In an opinion piece for Lawfare, Research Analyst Micah Musser discussed the new regulations that entered into effect in China requiring companies deploying recommendation algorithms to file details about those algorithms with the Cyberspace Administration of China.

Between 2012 and 2018, the amount of computing power used by record-breaking artificial intelligence models doubled every 3.4 months. Even with money pouring into the AI field, this trendline is unsustainable. Because of cost, hardware availability and engineering difficulties, the next decade of AI can't rely exclusively on applying more and more computing power to drive further progress.

Cybersecurity operators have increasingly relied on machine learning to address a rising number of threats. But will machine learning give them a decisive advantage or just help them keep pace with attackers? This report explores the history of machine learning in cybersecurity and the potential it has for transforming cyber defense in the near future.

Growing popular and industry interest in high-performing natural language generation models has led to concerns that such models could be used to generate automated disinformation at scale. This report examines the capabilities of GPT-3--a cutting-edge AI system that writes text--to analyze its potential misuse for disinformation. A model like GPT-3 may be able to help disinformation actors substantially reduce the work necessary to write disinformation while expanding its reach and potentially also its effectiveness.

Based on an in-depth analysis of artificial intelligence and machine learning systems, the authors consider the future of applying such systems to cyber attacks, and what strategies attackers are likely or less likely to use. As nuanced, complex, and overhyped as machine learning is, they argue, it remains too important to ignore.

As demand for cybersecurity experts in the United States has grown faster than the supply of qualified workers, some organizations have turned to artificial intelligence to bolster their overwhelmed cyber teams. Organizations may opt for distinct teams that specialize exclusively in AI or cybersecurity, but there is a benefit to having employees with overlapping experience in both domains. This data brief analyzes hiring demand for individuals with a combination of AI and cybersecurity skills.