Co-Chairs Mann and Schriver, distinguished Commissioners and staff, thank you for the opportunity to participate in today’s hearing. It is an honor to be here alongside esteemed experts on this panel. I am a Research Fellow at the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) at Georgetown University, where I lead our line of research on U.S. national competitiveness. This work centers on both the “promote” and “protect” sides of national competitiveness, as I believe it is impossible to compete without both working in tandem. As part of the “protect” piece, our work includes examining U.S. and multilateral export control policies to better understand how to most effectively wield these tools, particularly as it relates to China. Today, I will focus on this topic at the committee’s request.
My testimony assesses lessons learned from the multilateral export controls implemented following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Weaved throughout my testimony will be a common theme: when export controls have clear vision or purpose and are done in conjunction with allies and partners—in other words, multilaterally or plurilaterally—they are more likely to achieve desired objectives. Moreover, we must also remember to temper our expectations when it comes to export controls, especially when thinking about China. The success we have witnessed in isolating the Russian economy over the past five months is unique to this scenario; a similar approach to China would yield vastly different results, in part due to the interconnectedness of global supply chains and China’s role at the center of many of these.
I’d like to begin with a high-level overview of the export control response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, followed by an assessment of export controls beyond Russia. I will then analyze how export controls have affected China, and what China has done to reduce its vulnerability to these controls. Lastly, I’ll offer lessons learned, as well as recommendations for Congress, which include:
- Capitalizing on the multilateral coordination following the invasion of Ukraine by codifying a new multilateral export control regime to complement the four existing regimes. This regime should focus on using export controls to achieve objectives beyond nonproliferation;
- Establishing a Supply Chain Chokepoints Task Force to study global supply chains in critical technologies; and
- Establishing a well-resourced S&T analysis and monitoring organization with sustained funding to monitor global developments in emerging and foundational technologies.