Foretell is CSET's crowd forecasting pilot project focused on technology and security policy. It connects historical and forecast data on near-term events with the big-picture questions that are most relevant to policymakers. This issue brief uses recent forecast data to illustrate Foretell’s methodology.

See our original translation of a document that lays out the PRC government’s priorities for developing China’s civilian space infrastructure through 2025. It recommends that China reduce its reliance on foreign civilian satellite technology, but also advocates for continued use of international exchanges and technology transfer as ways to catch up to more technologically advanced countries in space infrastructure.

See our original translation of a speech that Xi delivered to a meeting of academics in 2020 that he convened to solicit input for China’s upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan.

This brief examines how the Pentagon’s investments in autonomy and AI may affect its military capabilities and strategic interests. It proposes that DOD invest in improving its understanding of trust in human-machine teams and leverage existing AI technologies to enhance military readiness and endurance. In the long term, investments in reliable, trustworthy, and resilient AI systems are critical for ensuring sustained military, technological, and strategic advantages.

In recent years, concern has grown about the risks of Chinese nationals studying science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects at U.S. universities. This data brief estimates the number of Chinese students in the United States in detail, according to their fields of study and degree level. Among its findings: Chinese nationals comprise 16 percent of all graduate STEM students and 2 percent of undergraduate STEM students, lower proportions than were previously suggested in U.S. government reports.

China’s surge in artificial intelligence development has been fueled, in large part, by advances in computer vision, the AI subdomain that makes powerful facial recognition technologies possible. This data brief compares U.S. and Chinese computer vision patent data to illustrate the different approaches each country takes to AI development.

Axios Future highlighted a series of one-pagers issued by CSET providing AI policy recommendations for the next presidential administration to consider and implement. The full piece from Axios can be found below.

Since 2016, China has engaged in a nationwide effort to "merge" AI and neuroscience research as a major part of its next-generation AI development program. This report explores China’s AI-brain program — identifying key players and organizations and recommending the creation of an open source S&T monitoring capability within the U.S. government.

Establishing a new public-private institution to improve American research security

How should the United States understand and respond to China’s technologically driven mass surveillance, internment and indoctrination in Xinjiang? Dahlia Peterson offers a set of policy recommendations in a coauthored report for the Brookings Institution.