System-to-model innovation is an emerging innovation pathway in artificial intelligence that has driven progress in several prominent areas over the last decade. System-level innovations advance with the diffusion of AI and expand the base of contributors to leading-edge progress in the field. Countries that can identify and harness system-level innovations faster and more comprehensively will gain crucial economic and military advantages over competitors. This paper analyzes the benefits of system-to-model innovation and suggests a three-part framework to navigate the policy implications: protect, diffuse, and anticipate.

CSET’s Sam Bresnick shared his expert insights in an article published by The Telegraph. The article discusses China’s unveiling of a mosquito-sized drone developed by scientists in Hunan province, highlighting its potential for intelligence gathering, surveillance, and special missions in places that larger drones struggle to access.

The accelerating commercialization of satellites and launch technologies means space is now more congested, contested, and operationally limited than ever. This drives an imperative to leverage emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence to observe, orient, protect, and if needed, for defense. This report surveys the technology landscape to understand how AI can be applied to space domain awareness and orbital warfare.

The U.S. Air Force is attempting to adopt artificial intelligence, but efforts have struggled to gain institutional traction. This report draws on lessons from past military innovations and current AI challenges to offer practical, people-centric recommendations. By embedding engineers, empowering leaders, and retaining talent, the Air Force can take charge of (honcho) AI adoption to achieve a military advantage.

The United States is home to a growing set of companies building advanced space technologies, from lunar landers to satellite servicing systems. These firms are taking on missions once led by government and developing capabilities the government does not yet field. But limited profitability, export restrictions, and free government services may constrain growth unless targeted investments and smart policies help sustain a dynamic, secure commercial space sector. This report explores the U.S. advanced space technologies industry and highlights challenges and opportunities the state of the industry presents for national security.

CSET’s Kathleen Curlee shared her expert analysis in an op-ed published by Barron’s. In her piece, she examines Elon Musk’s unraveling relationship with President Trump and the political and market consequences for Tesla and SpaceX.

CSET’s Helen Toner shared her expert insights in an article published by HuffPost. The article discusses concerning findings from recent tests showing that advanced AI models, including OpenAI’s o3 and Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4, can exhibit deceptive, self-preserving behaviors when faced with shutdown or replacement.

Emelia Probasco and Minji Jang shared their expert analysis in an op-ed published by War on the Rocks. In their piece, they highlight how future military use of AI—particularly in the form of autonomous drones—could shift from being a passive tool to an active coach or even an enforcer of battlefield ethics.

CSET’s Helen Toner shared her expert insights in an article published by WIRED. The article explores the development of a new large language model, Collective-1, built using a distributed training approach that leverages globally dispersed GPUs and incorporates both public and private data sources.

John Bansemer and Kyle Miller shared their expert analysis in a report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies. In their piece, they highlight the release of DeepSeek’s open-weight AI model “R1” in January 2025 and its major impact on global AI competition, especially between China and the United States.