Research

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of AI — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how it can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research focusing on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use.

One sentence summarizes the complexities of modern artificial intelligence: Machine learning systems use computing power to execute algorithms that learn from data. This AI triad of computing power, algorithms, and data offers a framework for decision-making in national security policy.

Cybersecurity


Data, algorithms and models


Hardware and compute


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One sentence summarizes the complexities of modern artificial intelligence: Machine learning systems use computing power to execute algorithms that learn from data. This AI triad of computing power, algorithms, and data offers a framework for decision-making in national security policy.

The world is watching how the Chinese military develops and deploys artificial intelligence—but how exactly will it apply AI? This policy brief analyzes Chinese experts’ arguments about AI and prospective warfighting capabilities, identifying prevailing concerns about strategic stability and unintended escalation.

See our translation of a draft export control bill that was being considered by China’s parliament, the National People’s Congress, as of July 2020. The bill limits exports of dual-use items, military equipment, nuclear materials and other goods of counterproliferation concern. It also sets penalties for Chinese exporters who violate the provisions of the bill.

See our translaiton of a 2018 article by a Chinese state think tank praises the U.S. integration of the military and civilian industrial bases as a model for China. The article argues that China can learn much about "military-civil fusion" from U.S. legislation on this issue.

Data Brief

U.S. Demand for AI-Related Talent

Autumn Toney Melissa Flagg
| August 2020

The U.S. government and industry both see artificial intelligence as a pivotal technology for future growth and competitiveness. What skills will be needed to create, integrate, and deploy AI applications? This data brief analyzes market demand for AI-related jobs to determine their educational requirements, dominant sectors, and geographic distribution.

CSET and the Bipartisan Policy Center partnered with Representatives Robin Kelly and Will Hurd to propose guidelines for national security considerations that must be addressed in a national AI strategy. The findings identify key areas for improvement in defense and intelligence to put the nation on a path to large-scale development and deployment of AI tools in promoting national security.

Analysis

Deepfakes: A Grounded Threat Assessment

Tim Hwang
| July 2020

The rise of deepfakes could enhance the effectiveness of disinformation efforts by states, political parties and adversarial actors. How rapidly is this technology advancing, and who in reality might adopt it for malicious ends? This report offers a comprehensive deepfake threat assessment grounded in the latest machine learning research on generative models.

Data Brief

Identifying AI-Related Companies

Zachary Arnold Rebecca Gelles Ilya Rahkovsky
| July 2020

Artificial intelligence is of increasing interest to the private sector, but what exactly constitutes an “AI company?” This data brief offers a flexible, data-driven framework for identifying the companies most relevant in this field at the moment, providing policymakers and researchers with a tool for mapping technology transfer risks and gauging the overall health of America’s AI sector.

Analysis

Messier than Oil: Assessing Data Advantage in Military AI

Husanjot Chahal Ryan Fedasiuk Carrick Flynn
| July 2020

Both China and the United States seek to develop military applications enabled by artificial intelligence. This issue brief reviews the obstacles to assessing data competitiveness and provides metrics for measuring data advantage.

See our translation of a short Chinese official notice from 2011 provides details on China's "Thousand Talents Program," specifically the program's procedures for recruiting and retaining non-Chinese foreign experts who can contribute to China's S&T base.