Research

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of AI — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how it can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research focusing on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use.

Report

Tracking AI Investment

Zachary Arnold Ilya Rahkovsky Tina Huang
| September 2020

The global AI industry is booming, with privately held firms pulling in nearly $40 billion in disclosed investment in 2019 alone. U.S. companies continue to attract the majority of that funding—64 percent of it in 2019—but that lead is not guaranteed. This report analyzes AI investment data from 2015 to 2019 to help better understand trends in the global AI landscape.

Investment


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Analysis

Future Indices

Michael Page Catherine Aiken Dewey Murdick
| October 19, 2020

Foretell is CSET's crowd forecasting pilot project focused on technology and security policy. It connects historical and forecast data on near-term events with the big-picture questions that are most relevant to policymakers. This issue brief uses recent forecast data to illustrate Foretell’s methodology.

See our original translation of a document that lays out the PRC government’s priorities for developing China’s civilian space infrastructure through 2025. It recommends that China reduce its reliance on foreign civilian satellite technology, but also advocates for continued use of international exchanges and technology transfer as ways to catch up to more technologically advanced countries in space infrastructure.

See our original translation of a speech that Xi delivered to a meeting of academics in 2020 that he convened to solicit input for China’s upcoming 14th Five-Year Plan.

National security leaders view AI as a priority technology for defending the United States. This two-part analysis is intended to help policymakers better understand the scope and implications of U.S. military investment in autonomy and AI. It focuses on the range of autonomous and AI-enabled technologies the Pentagon is developing, the military capabilities these applications promise to deliver, and the impact that such advances could have on key strategic issues.

This brief examines how the Pentagon’s investments in autonomy and AI may affect its military capabilities and strategic interests. It proposes that DOD invest in improving its understanding of trust in human-machine teams and leverage existing AI technologies to enhance military readiness and endurance. In the long term, investments in reliable, trustworthy, and resilient AI systems are critical for ensuring sustained military, technological, and strategic advantages.

The Pentagon has a wide range of research and development programs using autonomy and AI in unmanned vehicles and systems, information processing, decision support, targeting functions, and other areas. This policy brief delves into the details of DOD’s science and technology program to assess trends in funding, key areas of focus, and gaps in investment that could stymie the development and fielding of AI systems in operational settings.

Analysis

U.S. Military Investments in Autonomy and AI: Executive Summary

Margarita Konaev
| October 2020

Today’s research and development investments will set the course for artificial intelligence in national security in the coming years. This Executive Summary presents key findings and recommendations from CSET’s two-part analysis of U.S. military investments in autonomy and AI, including our assessment of DOD’s research priorities, trends and gaps, as well as ways to ensure U.S. military leadership in AI in the short and the long term.

Analysis

Estimating the Number of Chinese STEM Students in the United States

Jacob Feldgoise Remco Zwetsloot
| October 2020

In recent years, concern has grown about the risks of Chinese nationals studying science, technology, engineering and mathematics (STEM) subjects at U.S. universities. This data brief estimates the number of Chinese students in the United States in detail, according to their fields of study and degree level. Among its findings: Chinese nationals comprise 16 percent of all graduate STEM students and 2 percent of undergraduate STEM students, lower proportions than were previously suggested in U.S. government reports.

Analysis

Russian AI Research 2010-2018

Margarita Konaev James Dunham
| October 2020

Over the last decade, Moscow has boosted funding of universities and implemented reforms in order to make Russia a global leader in AI. As part of that effort, Russian researchers have expanded their English-language publication output, a key—if imperfect—measure of the country’s innovation and impact. Between 2010 and 2018, the number of English-language publications by Russian scientists in AI-related fields increased six-fold.

China’s surge in artificial intelligence development has been fueled, in large part, by advances in computer vision, the AI subdomain that makes powerful facial recognition technologies possible. This data brief compares U.S. and Chinese computer vision patent data to illustrate the different approaches each country takes to AI development.