Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

CSET’s 2024 Annual Report

Center for Security and Emerging Technology
| March 2025

In 2024, CSET continued to deliver impactful, data-driven analysis at the intersection of emerging technology and security policy. Explore our annual report to discover key research highlights, expert testimony, and new analytical tools — all aimed at shaping informed, strategic decisions around AI and emerging tech.

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Reports

Wuhan’s AI Development

William Hannas, Huey-Meei Chang, and Daniel Chou
| May 2025

Wuhan, China’s inland metropolis, is paving the way for a nationwide rollout of “embodied” artificial intelligence meant to fast-track scientific discovery, optimize production, streamline commerce, and facilitate state supervision of social activities. Grounded in real-world data, the AI grows smarter, offering a pathway to artificial “general” intelligence that will reinforce state ideology and boost economic goals. This report documents the genesis of Wuhan’s AGI initiative and its multifaceted deployment.

Reports

Promoting AI Innovation Through Competition

Jack Corrigan
| May 2025

Maintaining long-term U.S. leadership in artificial intelligence will require policymakers to foster a diversified, contestable, and competitive market for AI systems. Today, however, incumbent technology companies maintain a distinct advantage in the production of large AI models, and they have the means and motion to use their control over key chokepoints in the AI supply chain (compute, data, foundation models, distribution channels) to stifle competition. This report explores the associated economic and national security risks, and offers recommendations for maintaining an open and competitive AI industry.

Helen Toner testified before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Courts, Intellectual Property, Artificial Intelligence, and the Internet on recommendations to bolster security and transparency around U.S.-developed frontier AI.

Read our translation of a Chinese government policy document that provides guidelines for how state investment funds—often used to develop strategic emerging industries—should operate.

Read our translation of a plan listing China’s short- to medium-term policy priorities for agriculture and rural areas.

Read our translation of China's official readout of a Chinese Politburo collective study session on AI, at which Xi Jinping spoke.

Reports

Defending Against Intelligent Attackers at Large Scales

Andrew Lohn
| April 22, 2025

We investigate the scale of attack and defense mathematically in the context of AI's possible effect on cybersecurity. For a given target today, highly scaled cyber attacks such as from worms or botnets typically all fail or all succeed.

Read our translation of an ambitious plan by three Chinese government ministries to make a huge portion of China's datasets discoverable and usable in a single catalog by 2029.

Unlike other domains of conflict, and unlike other fields with high anticipated risk from AI, the cyber domain is intrinsically digital with a tight feedback loop between AI training and cyber application. Cyber may have some of the largest and earliest impacts from AI, so it is important to understand how the cyber domain may change as AI continues to advance. Our approach reviewed the literature, collecting nine arguments that have been proposed for offensive advantage in cyber conflict and nine proposed arguments for defensive advantage.

Reports

Top-Tier Research Status for HBCUs?

Jaret C. Riddick and Brendan Oliss
| April 2025

The Carnegie Classification of Institutions of Higher Education is simplifying its top-tier R1 research criteria this year. Recognizing the strategic importance of historically Black colleges and universities, Congress passed Section 223 of the 2023 National Defense Authorization Act to increase defense research capacity by encouraging the most eligible among these institutions to seek the highly coveted R1 status. This in-depth analysis examines the 2025 classification changes, their effect on eligible HBCUs, and strategies for Congress to maintain progress.