Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

CSET’s 2024 Annual Report

Center for Security and Emerging Technology
| March 2025

In 2024, CSET continued to deliver impactful, data-driven analysis at the intersection of emerging technology and security policy. Explore our annual report to discover key research highlights, expert testimony, and new analytical tools — all aimed at shaping informed, strategic decisions around AI and emerging tech.

Filter publications
Reports

Controlling Large Language Model Outputs: A Primer

Jessica Ji, Josh A. Goldstein, and Andrew Lohn
| December 2023

Concerns over risks from generative artificial intelligence systems have increased significantly over the past year, driven in large part by the advent of increasingly capable large language models. But, how do AI developers attempt to control the outputs of these models? This primer outlines four commonly used techniques and explains why this objective is so challenging.

CSET submitted the following comment in response to a Request for Comment (RFC) from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) about a draft memorandum providing guidance to government agencies regarding the appointment of Chief AI Officers, Risk Management for AI, and other processes following the October 30, 2023 Executive Order on AI.

Reports

Skating to Where the Puck Is Going

Helen Toner, Jessica Ji, John Bansemer, and Lucy Lim
| October 2023

AI capabilities are evolving quickly and pose novel—and likely significant—risks. In these rapidly changing conditions, how can policymakers effectively anticipate and manage risks from the most advanced and capable AI systems at the frontier of the field? This Roundtable Report summarizes some of the key themes and conclusions of a July 2023 workshop on this topic jointly hosted by CSET and Google DeepMind.

Reports

Decoding Intentions

Andrew Imbrie, Owen Daniels, and Helen Toner
| October 2023

How can policymakers credibly reveal and assess intentions in the field of artificial intelligence? Policymakers can send credible signals of their intent by making pledges or committing to undertaking certain actions for which they will pay a price—political, reputational, or monetary—if they back down or fail to make good on their initial promise or threat. Talk is cheap, but inadvertent escalation is costly to all sides.

Reports

The Inigo Montoya Problem for Trustworthy AI (International Version)

Emelia Probasco and Kathleen Curlee
| October 2023

Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States emphasize principles of accountability, explainability, fairness, privacy, security, and transparency in their high-level AI policy documents. But while the words are the same, these countries define each of these principles in slightly different ways that could have large impacts on interoperability and the formulation of international norms. This creates, what we call the “Inigo Montoya problem” in trustworthy AI, inspired by "The Princess Bride" movie quote: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Other

Techniques to Make Large Language Models Smaller: An Explainer

Kyle Miller and Andrew Lohn
| October 11, 2023

This explainer overviews techniques to produce smaller and more efficient language models that require fewer resources to develop and operate. Importantly, information on how to leverage these techniques, and many of the subsequent small models, are openly available online for anyone to use. The combination of both small (i.e., easy to use) and open (i.e., easy to access) could have significant implications for artificial intelligence development.

Reports

Onboard AI: Constraints and Limitations

Kyle Miller and Andrew Lohn
| August 2023

Artificial intelligence that makes news headlines, such as ChatGPT, typically runs in well-maintained data centers with an abundant supply of compute and power. However, these resources are more limited on many systems in the real world, such as drones, satellites, or ground vehicles. As a result, the AI that can run onboard these devices will often be inferior to state of the art models. That can affect their usability and the need for additional safeguards in high-risk contexts. This issue brief contextualizes these challenges and provides policymakers with recommendations on how to engage with these technologies.

Data Brief

Assessing South Korea’s AI Ecosystem

Cole McFaul, Husanjot Chahal, Rebecca Gelles, and Margarita Konaev
| August 2023

This data brief examines South Korea’s progress in its development of artificial intelligence. The authors find that the country excels in semiconductor manufacturing, is a global leader in the production of AI patents, and is an important contributor to AI research. At the same time, the AI investment ecosystem remains nascent and despite having a highly developed AI workforce, the demand for AI talent may soon outpace supply.

Reports

Confidence-Building Measures for Artificial Intelligence

Andrew Lohn
| August 3, 2023

Foundation models could eventually introduce several pathways for undermining state security: accidents, inadvertent escalation, unintentional conflict, the proliferation of weapons, and the interference with human diplomacy are just a few on a long list. The Confidence-Building Measures for Artificial Intelligence workshop hosted by the Geopolitics Team at OpenAI and the Berkeley Risk and Security Lab at the University of California brought together a multistakeholder group to think through the tools and strategies to mitigate the potential risks introduced by foundation models to international security.

Jenny Jun's testimony before the House Foreign Affairs Subcommittee on Indo-Pacific for a hearing titled, "Illicit IT: Bankrolling Kim Jong Un."