Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Report

CSET’s 2024 Annual Report

Center for Security and Emerging Technology
| March 2025

In 2024, CSET continued to deliver impactful, data-driven analysis at the intersection of emerging technology and security policy. Explore our annual report to discover key research highlights, expert testimony, and new analytical tools — all aimed at shaping informed, strategic decisions around AI and emerging tech.

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Reports

Building the Tech Coalition

Emelia Probasco
| August 2024

The U.S. Army’s 18th Airborne Corps can now target artillery just as efficiently as the best unit in recent American history—and it can do so with two thousand fewer servicemembers. This report presents a case study of how the 18th Airborne partnered with tech companies to develop, prototype, and operationalize software and artificial intelligence for clear military advantage. The lessons learned form recommendations to the U.S. Department of Defense as it pushes to further develop and adopt AI and other new technologies.

The U.S. government has an opportunity to seize strategic advantages by working with the remote sensing and data analysis industries. Both grew rapidly over the last decade alongside technology improvements, cheaper space launch, new investment-based business models, and stable regulation. From new sensors to new orbits, the intelligence community and regulators have recognized these changes and opportunities—the U.S. Department of Defense, NASA, and other agencies should follow suit.

Data Brief

A Quantitative Assessment of Department of Defense S&T Publication Collaborations

Emelia Probasco and Autumn Toney
| June 2024

While the effects of the U.S. Department of Defense’s broad investments in research and development go far beyond what is publicly disclosed, authors affiliated with the DOD do publish papers about their research. This analysis examines more than 100,000 papers by DOD-affiliated authors since 2000 and offers insight into the patterns of research publication and collaboration by the DOD.

Reports

China’s Military AI Roadblocks

Sam Bresnick
| June 2024

China’s leadership believes that artificial intelligence will play a central role in future wars. However, the author's comprehensive review of dozens of Chinese-language journal articles about AI and warfare reveals that Chinese defense experts claim that Beijing is facing several technological challenges that may hinder its ability to capitalize on the advantages provided by military AI. This report outlines these perceived barriers and identifies several technologies that Chinese experts believe may help the country develop and deploy military AI-enabled systems.

Reports

Bibliometric Analysis of China’s Non-Therapeutic Brain-Computer Interface Research

William Hannas, Huey-Meei Chang, Rishika Chauhan, Daniel Chou, John O’Callaghan, Max Riesenhuber, Vikram Venkatram, and Jennifer Wang
| March 2024

China’s brain-computer interface research has two dimensions. Besides its usual applications in neuropathology, China is extending the benefits of BCI to the general population, aiming at enhanced cognition and a “merger” of natural and artificial intelligence. This report, authored in collaboration with researchers from the Department of War Studies at King’s College London uses bibliometric analysis and expert assessment of technical documents to evaluate China’s BCI, and conclude that the research is on track to achieve its targets.

Reports

Which Ties Will Bind?

Sam Bresnick, Ngor Luong, and Kathleen Curlee
| February 2024

U.S. technology companies have become important actors in modern conflicts, and several of them have meaningfully contributed to Ukraine’s defense. But many of these companies are deeply entangled with China, potentially complicating their decision-making in a potential Taiwan contingency.

Reports

Decoding Intentions

Andrew Imbrie, Owen Daniels, and Helen Toner
| October 2023

How can policymakers credibly reveal and assess intentions in the field of artificial intelligence? Policymakers can send credible signals of their intent by making pledges or committing to undertaking certain actions for which they will pay a price—political, reputational, or monetary—if they back down or fail to make good on their initial promise or threat. Talk is cheap, but inadvertent escalation is costly to all sides.

Reports

The Inigo Montoya Problem for Trustworthy AI (International Version)

Emelia Probasco and Kathleen Curlee
| October 2023

Australia, Canada, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States emphasize principles of accountability, explainability, fairness, privacy, security, and transparency in their high-level AI policy documents. But while the words are the same, these countries define each of these principles in slightly different ways that could have large impacts on interoperability and the formulation of international norms. This creates, what we call the “Inigo Montoya problem” in trustworthy AI, inspired by "The Princess Bride" movie quote: “You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.”

Reports

The PRC’s Efforts Abroad

Owen Daniels
| September 2023

This report summarizes more than 20 CSET reports, translations, and data analyses to provide insight into the steps China has taken to increase its technological competitiveness beyond its own borders.

Reports

The PRC’s Domestic Approach

Owen Daniels
| September 2023

This report summarizes more than 20 CSET reports, translations, and data analyses to provide insight into China’s internal actions to advance and implement its technology-related policy goals