Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Analysis

Which Ties Will Bind?

Sam Bresnick Ngor Luong Kathleen Curlee
| February 2024

U.S. technology companies have become important actors in modern conflicts, and several of them have meaningfully contributed to Ukraine’s defense. But many of these companies are deeply entangled with China, potentially complicating their decision-making in a potential Taiwan contingency.

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Analysis

Reducing the Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Military Decision Advantage

Wyatt Hoffman Heeu Millie Kim
| March 2023

Militaries seek to harness artificial intelligence for decision advantage. Yet AI systems introduce a new source of uncertainty in the likelihood of technical failures. Such failures could interact with strategic and human factors in ways that lead to miscalculation and escalation in a crisis or conflict. Harnessing AI effectively requires managing these risk trade-offs by reducing the likelihood, and containing the consequences of, AI failures.

Analysis

Will AI Make Cyber Swords or Shields?

Andrew Lohn Krystal Jackson
| August 2022

Funding and priorities for technology development today determine the terrain for digital battles tomorrow, and they provide the arsenals for both attackers and defenders. Unfortunately, researchers and strategists disagree on which technologies will ultimately be most beneficial and which cause more harm than good. This report provides three examples showing that, while the future of technology is impossible to predict with certainty, there is enough empirical data and mathematical theory to have these debates with more rigor.

CSET Senior Fellow Andrew Lohn testified before the House of Representatives Homeland Security Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Innovation at a hearing on "Securing the Future: Harnessing the Potential of Emerging Technologies While Mitigating Security Risks." Lohn discussed the application of AI systems in cybersecurity and AI’s vulnerabilities.

CSET Senior Fellow Andrew Lohn testified before the House of Representatives Science, Space and Technology Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight and Subcommittee on Research and Technology at a hearing on "Securing the Digital Commons: Open-Source Software Cybersecurity." Lohn discussed how the United States can maximize sharing within the artificial intelligence community while reducing risks to the AI supply chain.

CSET Senior Fellow Andrew Lohn testified before the U.S. Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Cybersecurity hearing on artificial intelligence applications to operations in cyberspace. Lohn discussed AI's capabilities and vulnerabilities in cyber defenses and offenses.

Analysis

Automating Cyber Attacks

Ben Buchanan John Bansemer Dakota Cary Jack Lucas Micah Musser
| November 2020

Based on an in-depth analysis of artificial intelligence and machine learning systems, the authors consider the future of applying such systems to cyber attacks, and what strategies attackers are likely or less likely to use. As nuanced, complex, and overhyped as machine learning is, they argue, it remains too important to ignore.