How can state-of-the-art probabilistic forecasting tools be used to advance expert debates on big policy questions? Using Foretell, a crowd forecasting platform piloted by CSET, we trialed a method to break down a big question—”What is the future of the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship?”—into measurable components, and then leveraged the wisdom of the crowd to reduce uncertainty and arbitrate disagreement among a group of experts.
Foretell was CSET's crowd forecasting pilot project focused on technology and security policy. It connected historical and forecast data on near-term events with the big-picture questions that are most relevant to policymakers. In January 2022, Foretell became part of a larger forecasting program to support U.S. government policy decisions called INFER, which is run by the Applied Research Laboratory for Intelligence and Security at the University of Maryland and Cultivate Labs.
To learn more, please review this policy. By continuing to browse the site, you agree to these terms.
Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.