The Diplomat author Mercy Kuo regularly engages subject-matter experts, policy practitioners, and strategic thinkers across the globe for their diverse insights into U.S. Asia policy.  This conversation with Huey-Meei Chang – Senior China Science and Technology Specialist at Georgetown University’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) and co-editor with William C. Hannas of “Chinese Power and Artificial Intelligence: Perspectives and Challenges” (Routledge, 2023) – is the 422nd in “The Trans-Pacific View Insight Series.” 

Evaluate the viability of China’s plan to lead the world in artificial intelligence by 2030. 

It is plausible, even probable. The usual predictors are talent, computing strength, and data availability. Let’s look at them in reverse order.

China is said to have an edge on data, needed to feed the LLMs [large language models] that many believe will dominate AI through the end of the decade. Chinese data quality is a problem, but the data can be cleaned. In any event, the entire world is running out of training data, so call this even.

Computing strength turns on the availability of high-end chips, where China lags. Efforts to restrict China’s access to graphic processing units (GPUs) have succeeded temporarily, but China has workarounds, such as substituting quantity, third-party purchases, writing efficient algorithms, outsourcing the training, investing in R&D, and, hypothetically, stealing. If the fate of a reborn Huawei is illustrative, we may erase our advantage. But for now, the U.S. has an edge.

For AI talent, China is the winner as measured by published papers, conference presentations, number of graduates, university ranking, and number of patents. More than a third of U.S. AI researchers hail from China, which has its own slippery dynamic. 

In sum, the race to “lead” in AI is a draw with the momentum in China’s favor.

Read the full interview at The Diplomat.