Executive Summary
The U.S.-government-designed uncrewed Surveyor moon lander program first flew in 1966 and cost $658 million per lander in 2024 dollars.1 The government-designed Apollo missions cost $23 billion per launch when adjusted to 2020 dollars. Since then, NASA has taken a different approach: in February 2024, the company Intuitive Machines successfully delivered a lander to the surface of the moon, fulfilling an agency contract costing just $118 million.2
Today, U.S. companies find themselves fulfilling roles that were historically the domain of the government—and taking on missions that even the government has yet to embrace. From exploration systems to in-space manufacturing to satellite refueling, companies are deploying new systems for novel applications at a rapid pace and lower price. We call these companies part of the “advanced space technology” market and include in this category businesses that provide positioning, navigation, and timing; space situational awareness (SSA); exploration; in-space satellite services; and in-space manufacturing.*
Our analysis of 91 U.S. advanced space technology companies shows that—unlike established commercial markets such as satellite communications, remote sensing, and space launch, where company formation peaked around 2015—the number of newly founded advanced space technology companies grew fastest in 2021 after years of steady expansion. More than half of these companies work in areas where the government has limited services: 40 percent work on in-space servicing and related technologies, and 16 percent work on in-space manufacturing. A further 40 percent are focused on space exploration and science, embracing government funding but also leveraging other capital and business models to make exploration more affordable to government customers. Less than 10 percent of these companies exist to surveil space from the ground or to provide navigation and timing services, areas where the U.S. government currently invests billions.
Corporate growth in this market appears to follow two interrelated factors. The first is the march of technology, harnessing the increasing performance and reliability of smaller electronics and embracing cheaper experimentation to field capabilities at scale.
The second factor is the shift from the government as a developer and provider of technology to the government as a consumer of space products and services. This includes NASA’s purchases of commercial resupply, crew, and lunar payload services, as well as the U.S. Department of Defense’s purchases of SSA data. Technology transfers from government to industry have also helped lower barriers to entry for innovative companies, using tools such as technology transfer agreements to support in-space manufacturers or new technology feasibility demonstrations.
The United States has long relied on advanced technologies for security in space and terrestrially. From navigation-enabled warfare to precision strike capabilities, there has often been overlap between Earth and space. The next generation of advanced space technologies will be no different. Given the national security importance of advanced space technologies and the breadth of what falls under this banner, this paper identifies several challenges and opportunities facing companies as they deliver capabilities to the U.S. government.
- Challenges: Even for established markets such as launch and remote sensing, profitability can be a struggle for new space companies. In emerging mission areas with unproven technology, the profitability challenge is even greater. This—coupled with loosened but still restrictive limits on exporting U.S. technology abroad and the government provision of free-to-the-public services such as GPS and SSA—means that new firms may face an uphill struggle for survival even with valuable products.
- Opportunities: The advanced space technology market in the United States is small enough to enable policymakers and government agencies to have an outsize impact with relatively modest investments. Government money and attention could support American space companies in seizing a first-mover advantage for the nation compared to unfriendly states. Encouraging technology and knowledge transfer across multiple advanced technology areas may also accelerate commercial technological and economic developments. Whether that leads to a new era of cheaper science missions, provides strategic advantages against unfriendly nations in space, or both is a matter of planning and policy—and an opportunity to be seized.
For the U.S. government to advance its national security interests in conjunction with partners and allies, this paper makes the following recommendations:
- Federal agencies—especially the DOD, the intelligence community, and NASA—should invest in hedge portfolios for advanced technology missions with national security applications and outsize risks if the United States cedes leadership.
- The U.S. government should act as an anchor tenant by purchasing and investing in research for commercial services in selected advanced technologies, especially in-space satellite servicing, for which the U.S. government does not currently field a solution at scale.
- The U.S. government should continue to purchase services and make targeted investments (including infrastructure upgrades) in advanced technology areas where it is the dominant service provider to build resilience in government systems.
- The State Department, in consultation with the DOD and Department of Commerce, should harmonize export controls with allied nations actively building similar technology.
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* While advanced space technology could include multiple additional areas—such as space nuclear power and propulsion or deep space communications—this paper limits itself based on available data and the near-term realizability of these technologies. Furthermore, while in-space assembly and manufacturing are often grouped together, data shows more near-term commercial ventures pursuing manufacturing without assembly.
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Advanced Space Technologies- “Surveyor 1,” NASA Space Science Data Coordinated Archive, NASA, accessed February 27, 2025, https://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/nmc/spacecraft/display.action?id=1966-045A; “CPI Inflation Calculator,” U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, accessed February 27, 2025, https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl?cost1=67&year1=196601&year2=202403.
- Jeff Foust, “Final Preparations Underway for Launch of First Intuitive Machines Lunar Lander,” SpaceNews, February 15, 2024, https://spacenews.com/final-preparations-underway-for-launch-of-first-intuitive-machines-lunar-lander/.