Experts often have different views about big questions relevant to technology and security policy, such as the future of the U.S.-China relationship, or the effect a policy will have on global stability. By breaking big questions down into measurable components, we can better understand what drives experts’ views and accounts for their disagreements. CSET Research Fellow Michael Page and Director of Data Science Catherine Aiken discussed how they used this approach, along with CSET’s crowd forecasting platform Foretell, to shed light on a big question: what is the future of the DOD-Silicon Valley relationship? View the recording below to learn how CSET broke this question down into forecastable components and used the wisdom of the crowd to arbitrate expert disagreement. 

Recording and Discussion

Participants

Michael Page is a Research Fellow with the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). He was previously policy and ethics advisor at OpenAI. Before focusing on artificial intelligence, he was a litigation associate at Williams & Connolly LLP, a staff attorney at Public Citizen Litigation Group, and an adjunct professor at American University Washington College of Law. Michael received a J.D. magna cum laude from Cornell Law School, where he was the editor-in-chief of the Cornell Law Review. He clerked for Honorable Guido Calabresi on the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit.

Dr. Catherine Aiken is the Director of Data Science and Research at Georgetown’s Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET). Catherine was previously CSET’s survey specialist, designing and leading all of the Center’s survey and other human-subjects research. Before joining CSET, Catherine was at the University of Maryland, where she completed her doctorate and taught courses in political science and research methodology.  Catherine’s research explored non-mainstream political action, and she has conducted research for the International Crisis Behavior Project, Cross-Domain Deterrence Project, and Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory and taught at the National Consortium for the Study of Terrorism and Responses to Terrorism. Catherine holds a B.A. from the University of Rochester and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Maryland.