Analysis

U.S. Military Investments in Autonomy and AI: Costs, Benefits, and Strategic Effects

Margarita Konaev

October 2020

National security leaders view AI as a priority technology for defending the United States. This two-part analysis is intended to help policymakers better understand the scope and implications of U.S. military investment in autonomy and AI. It focuses on the range of autonomous and AI-enabled technologies the Pentagon is developing, the military capabilities these applications promise to deliver, and the impact that such advances could have on key strategic issues.

If leveraged correctly, investments in defense research can provide the U.S. military with the AI-enabled capabilities needed to deter adversaries, fight and win the wars of the future, and cooperate effectively with allies. As the Department of Defense implements its vision for artificial intelligence, CSET offers a two-part analysis assessing the scope and implications of U.S. military research investments in autonomy and AI.

Part I, “A Budgetary Assessment,” draws on publicly available data on DOD’s science and technology program, assessing the Pentagon’s research investment priorities, trends and gaps.

Part II, “A Strategic Assessment,” discusses the impact of DOD’s investment in autonomous and AI-enabled weapons and systems on U.S. military capabilities and strategic interests.

The reports present a range of recommendations for filling the knowledge gap in human-machine teaming research, minimizing risks from AI misuse, maximizing advantages from existing technological advances for logistics and sustainment, and prioritizing investments in trustworthy, reliable, and secure AI.

You can view each of the sections here: