Research

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of AI — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how it can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research focusing on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use.

One sentence summarizes the complexities of modern artificial intelligence: Machine learning systems use computing power to execute algorithms that learn from data. This AI triad of computing power, algorithms, and data offers a framework for decision-making in national security policy.

Cybersecurity


Data, algorithms and models


Hardware and compute


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One sentence summarizes the complexities of modern artificial intelligence: Machine learning systems use computing power to execute algorithms that learn from data. This AI triad of computing power, algorithms, and data offers a framework for decision-making in national security policy.

The world is watching how the Chinese military develops and deploys artificial intelligence—but how exactly will it apply AI? This policy brief analyzes Chinese experts’ arguments about AI and prospective warfighting capabilities, identifying prevailing concerns about strategic stability and unintended escalation.

CSET and the Bipartisan Policy Center partnered with Representatives Robin Kelly and Will Hurd to propose guidelines for national security considerations that must be addressed in a national AI strategy. The findings identify key areas for improvement in defense and intelligence to put the nation on a path to large-scale development and deployment of AI tools in promoting national security.

Analysis

Deepfakes: A Grounded Threat Assessment

Tim Hwang
| July 2020

The rise of deepfakes could enhance the effectiveness of disinformation efforts by states, political parties and adversarial actors. How rapidly is this technology advancing, and who in reality might adopt it for malicious ends? This report offers a comprehensive deepfake threat assessment grounded in the latest machine learning research on generative models.

Analysis

Messier than Oil: Assessing Data Advantage in Military AI

Husanjot Chahal Ryan Fedasiuk Carrick Flynn
| July 2020

Both China and the United States seek to develop military applications enabled by artificial intelligence. This issue brief reviews the obstacles to assessing data competitiveness and provides metrics for measuring data advantage.

Analysis

Overseas Professionals and Technology Transfer to China

Ryan Fedasiuk Emily Weinstein
| July 21, 2020

China's government encourages members of the Chinese diaspora to engage in technology transfer through Chinese professional associations. This issue brief analyzes 208 such associations to assess the scope of technical exchange between overseas professionals and entities within China.

Analysis

The China Scholarship Council: An Overview

Ryan Fedasiuk
| July 2020

The Chinese government seeks to exert influence through its scholarship and exchange programs. This issue brief assembles a picture of the China Scholarship Council—the primary vehicle by which the state provides scholarships—through Chinese-language sources.

Analysis

Immigration Policy and the Global Competition for AI Talent

Tina Huang Zachary Arnold
| June 2020

Current immigration policies may undermine the historic strength of the United States in attracting and retaining international AI talent. This report examines the immigration policies of four U.S. economic competitor nations—the United Kingdom, Canada, France, and Australia—to offer best practices for ensuring future AI competitiveness.

Analysis

Shaping the Terrain of AI Competition

Tim Hwang
| June 2020

How should democracies effectively compete against authoritarian regimes in the AI space? This report offers a “terrain strategy” for the United States to leverage the malleability of artificial intelligence to offset authoritarians' structural advantages in engineering and deploying AI.

Analysis

AI Definitions Affect Policymaking

Dewey Murdick James Dunham Jennifer Melot
| June 2, 2020

The task of artificial intelligence policymaking is complex and challenging, made all the more difficult by such a rapidly evolving technology. In order to address the security and economic implications of AI, policymakers must be able to viably define, categorize and assess AI research and technology. In this issue brief, CSET puts forward a functional definition of AI, based on three core principles, that significantly outperforms methods developed over the last decade.