Publications

CSET produces evidence-driven analysis in a variety of forms, from informative graphics and translations to expert testimony and published reports. Our key areas of inquiry are the foundations of artificial intelligence — such as talent, data and computational power — as well as how AI can be used in cybersecurity and other national security settings. We also do research on the policy tools that can be used to shape AI’s development and use, and on biotechnology.

Analysis

AI Safety and Automation Bias

Lauren Kahn, Emelia Probasco, and Ronnie Kinoshita
| November 2024

Automation bias is a critical issue for artificial intelligence deployment. It can cause otherwise knowledgeable users to make crucial and even obvious errors. Organizational, technical, and educational leaders can mitigate these biases through training, design, and processes. This paper explores automation bias and ways to mitigate it through three case studies: Tesla’s autopilot incidents, aviation incidents at Boeing and Airbus, and Army and Navy air defense incidents.

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The United States has long used export controls to prevent the proliferation of advanced semiconductors and the inputs necessary to produce them. With Beijing building up its own chipmaking industry, the United States has begun tightening restrictions on exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China. This brief provides an overview of U.S. semiconductor export control policies and analyzes the impacts of those policies on U.S.-China trade.

What U.S. export controls on AI-relevant technologies would help further aims such as stability and human rights abroad without impeding U.S. R&D? This issue brief assesses where such controls will be effective, ineffective or even damaging to the interests of the United States and its allies.

Analysis

Preserving the Chokepoints

Andre Barbe and Will Hunt
| May 2022

Offshoring the production of semiconductor manufacturing equipment would remove an important source of leverage over China and make the United States more dependent on other countries for some of the most important inputs to semiconductor manufacturing. This brief explores the factors driving U.S. SME firms to offshore production and what can be done to slow or reverse offshoring.

Data Brief

From Cold War Sanctions to Weaponized Interdependence

Adam Kline and Tim Hwang
| September 2021

As U.S. policymakers grapple with the need to control international technology flows, this annotated bibliography distills key lessons and surveys 50 years of scholarship, government documents, and commentary. The resources it presents are at the intersection of international economics and technology and span from the Cold War to the current challenges surrounding U.S.-China relations.

Analysis

Securing Semiconductor Supply Chains

Saif M. Khan
| January 2021

The countries with the greatest capacity to develop, produce and acquire state-of-the-art semiconductor chips hold key advantages in the development of emerging technologies. At present, the United States and its allies possess significant leverage over core segments of the supply chain used to produce these chips. This policy brief outlines actions the United States and its allies can take to secure that advantage in the long term and use it to promote the beneficial use of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence.

Analysis

China’s Progress in Semiconductor Manufacturing Equipment

Will Hunt, Saif M. Khan, and Dahlia Peterson
| March 2021

To reduce its dependence on the United States and its allies for semiconductors, China is building domestic semiconductor manufacturing facilities by importing U.S., Japanese, and Dutch semiconductor manufacturing equipment. In the longer term, it also hopes to indigenize this equipment to replace imports. U.S. and allied policy responses to China’s efforts will significantly affect its prospects for success in this challenging task.

Analysis

Multilateral Controls on Hardware Chokepoints

Carrick Flynn and Saif M. Khan
| September 2020

Protecting international security and human rights by using multilateral controls on semiconductor manufacturing equipment and advanced chips

Analysis

Agile Alliances

Andrew Imbrie, Ryan Fedasiuk, Catherine Aiken, Tarun Chhabra, and Husanjot Chahal
| February 2020

The United States must collaborate with its allies and partners to shape the trajectory of artificial intelligence, promoting liberal democratic values and protecting against efforts to wield AI for authoritarian ends.

Analysis

Decoupling in Strategic Technologies

Tim Hwang and Emily S. Weinstein
| July 2022

Geopolitical tensions between the United States and China have sparked an ongoing dialogue in Washington about the phenomenon of “decoupling”—the use of public policy tools to separate the multifaceted economic ties that connect the two powers. This issue brief provides a historical lens on the efficacy of one specific aspect of this broader decoupling phenomenon: using export controls and related trade policies to prevent a rival from acquiring the equipment and know-how to catch up to the United States in cutting-edge, strategically important technologies.

CSET submitted the following comment in response to the U.S. Department of Commerce's Advanced Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on the Review of Controls for Certain Emerging Technologies.